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Before I begin, I would like to introduce myself.
I have been trading for 2 years and just 1 year ago I met BPA, I am not a profitable trader and I still have big problems with things like FOMO, trade management and feelings of anxiety or fear when I enter a trade (because I always want to win even if I use a minimum risk, For some reason I still think that every loss is a step backwards that takes me away from the goal I want so much) I have worked in several things in my life but nothing has filled me as much as trading and maybe all that anxiety comes because of this, because trading is the only thing that really motivates me or gives me a challenge and I find it hard to accept that I can not move forward along the path of being a trader.
I do not want to get too much into personal details, but I think this summary explains a bit the kind of person I am and what I think every time I get in to the chart, I love them, but at the same time they supose a lot of pressure that I generate myself.
Because of all this I have decided to do Swing trading, only look for trades with a good RR and forget about micro trade management, only exit if I see another entry option better than mine, basically SL, TP or Reverse if there is a Swing setup stronger than the one I have active. I am looking for a context, a setup and a clear target (along the journal I will write what is my TG according to PA, but for the moment, due to my weak mentality, I am not able to hold trades, so I am taking profits at 2iR )
This is not a Journal to teach anyone, but rather to begin to create a discipline in me (since the fact of posting my ideas makes me uncomfortable xD) and at the same time maybe I can help someone who is on the same path as me.
You can comment on anything, give advice and points of view, since the goal of this is to improve, throw the ego in the trash and achieve the goal someday.
Thank you a lot
July 2024 Monday 08 (5min MES futures)
Yesterdary was huge trend day and tomorrow Powell and Yellen speaks, it is possible to have TR Open, also EU session moved a lot
ETH
RTH
Trades
I only took the First trade, because I mostly trade the open.
The first blue arrow was a good reason to exit if you are still holding the short but at the same time I dont think that bulls would make a big swing out of that because there isnt clear targets for them and If I had to choose between bar 5 as HoD or bar 14-18 as LoD, I think that bar 5 would hold and Bears will get more of that swing ( strong targets below )
July 2024 Tuesday 09 (5min MES futures)
Yesterday was a Bull bar with tail at the top (ETH) and a doji day in (RTH), we are pretty high on the daily chart so a reversal or PB could happen but at the same time theres also a MM TG a little bit more up, so I thought that maybe we could have a FBO at HoY or a successfull BO aiming for that MM.
My problem with todays PA was the conference (news) Powell + Yellen, because I dont feel confortable trading with news but the day was in a really small range 17p ( the whole day ) so maybe I shouldnt be so concern about news and focus more on PA except for really big news.
ETH
RTH
Trades
I want to point that I am only marking the zones that I think are most important for a Swing, I am avoiding all the little wedges/db/dt etc that exist on the chart to focus only on the “big” trades or most important structures
I think the 1st red arrow is a good sell but I didnt took it because was news bar ( Powell + Yellen conference ) but I am starting to think that maybe I should trade those anyway, other problem for this setup is that the signal bar was really big and even if we have a lot of targets below, theres one important TG at 1iR and I would love to aim for bigger RR, atleast 2iR.
If you took that trade it is reasonable to exit above the first Strong reversal bull bar after bears reached the important lvl GX but I also thought that the market was probably going lower because the Opening Range was small and could double it and reach all the bear targets.
The second trade or 1st blue arrow was a good pattern to reverse the short, even if the Opening Range was small and bears couldnt reach all their targets, I thought that Bulls where defending that area and those Nested W + DB + MDB + Strong Signal was a reason enough to try that bull swing.
In the other hand, the last trade was good but also hard to take because of that huge bull BO and the market being on that small range that could be doubled, but price couldnt close above HoD and we had a FBO HoD + DT + MDT + Strong signal at the top of TR on a TRD, also the bull BO started with bad Signal bar which used to be tested later and this huge BO could be a 2nd leg trap on TR, so I took the trade even if I was afraid ( I dont know why but I am always trying to see reason why I shouldnt take a trade instead of reasons why I should take it, I am trying to find a trade that has no bull or bear side but thats impossible, this is something that I am starting to understand, this is never black or white, it is both and we have to choose and take the risk, the good trade is never easy xD )
because I always want to win even if I use a minimum risk
Swing trading is 40% probability, so mostly not winning. Have you tried 1x high probability setups?
Because of all this I have decided to do Swing trading, only look for trades with a good RR and forget about micro trade management, only exit if I see another entry option better than mine, basically SL, TP or Reverse if there is a Swing setup stronger than the one I have active.
This sounds like "Always In" trading 🤓
Swing trading is 40% probability, so mostly not winning. Have you tried 1x high probability setups?
Hi w, yes I tried those but I am not really good with that setups being honest, sometimes I have to wait a lot to have a clear direcction or BO and a lot of those times I need to buy high in order to enter the trade because sometimes we have no PB and I dont like BTC/STC. It might have no sense but I feel way more confortable spoting reversals or deep PB than taking High probability setups with big SL.
For example if we have a big leg up and a small PB of 30% I never feel safe buying that PB in orther to get a 1:1, my SL is way to big below leg 1. I know theres a lot of really good setups like that but I dont like to trade those, I also dont want to scale in lower, I prefer to enter full size.
This sounds like "Always In" trading 🤓
Well Yes and No hahaha, I am not always in the market, I wait for a setup and then the moment I take the trade I have a TG (target) in mind, so once the market reach that target I am out until theres another big trade ( reversal ), I am pretty bad joining an existing trend ( you will see when I add yesteday PA 😆 )
But yes, it is kind of Alwais In in a sense because once I am on the market I only exit if I have a strongest swing against me or if my TG is reached.
Thank you for your post I will try to answer the best I can, even if sometimes what I said makes no sense, as I said I am not yet profitable and theres a lot of things that I need to improve 😜
July 2024 Wednesday 10 (5min MES futures)
Yesterday was TRD and on Daily chart we are having a strong move up, I thought we could have 3 different scenarios:
1.-FBO of HoY and move down TG GXL or LoY ( we are still on a Bull MC on Daily ), I dont like the fact that GX broke HoY just before the Open so I wasnt so sure if we would have the resistance I was expecting there ( maybe someone can help me with this because I dont know if that makes sense or if it is just a groundless fear )
2.-Bull BO TG MM on Daily that I was talking this past days ( I will show the Daily chart )
3.-TRD HoY/LoY
When I was preparing for the day I noticed that I was aiming for the HoY in order to get my entry for FBO, but I wasnt sure what I would do in case of Bull BO and how should I join that setup, as a results I was a trapped out trader.
Daily
ETH
RTH
Trades
Today I explained a lot of my reason on the chart because it is all the same swing and I couldnt do nothing more than watch it go.
At the beggining I was waiting for a test of the Highs after the 2 first CC bear bars in order to have a good sell setup and TG the LoD / Globex levels, but the market never give us the chance so I was trapped out of that short, I could have shorted after the failed H2 but the RR was bad and that trade was a scalp more than a swing at that point.
The first trade ( blue arrow ) was good in a sense, but I couldnt take it because even if I thought that we could go a little bit higher I expected trapped bulls to exit as soon as they reach their first entry and also because buying that arrow means buy at the middle of a TTR ( was a 10p range ) and I dont think that is a good area to be doing nothing ( middle of TR)
The second trade ( red arrow ) could be good even if the bulls had a strong leg up, but the context was good for a swing short. The signal never trigger so the Stop order saved me there.
After that theres a bunch of reasons and chances to buy and join the trend but as I said on the chart I wasnt able to do so. My SL is big, the RR is not good, the probability might be high but being honest I never feel safe on SPBL ( Small Pullback Bull trend ) I new that I was looking for a PB that could never happend and I was trapped out of the trade, but atleast I was able to see what was happening and I never took a sell, something that destroyed me many many times.
I would love if someone could say something about this type of days and how they manage them because being honest Small Pullback Trends are my nightmare
As you can see, today was a huge Trend day and I wasnt able to take a single trade
Hey Alejandro, Great work here! keep it up!
I have a couple of notes to write about your last post, hope it helps
HoY/LoY FBO setups work best in TR conditions on the daily chart or when you have a weak daily L1 Sell setup in a bull trend then LoY FBO is a great setup to take using the LTF reversal patterns below the LoY.
but when the market is in a strong bull trend on the daily chart, like the ES there are very few bear bars in the last two months, we'll mostly look for a successful BO above HoY or use the HoY as a TG.
we didn't have any good sell setup on the open, look at all the sell signal bars with tails on the bottom and bad FT after every bar in the bear leg.
Instead what we got, was a LL DB right at the EMA where the 2nd Low is created by a WB, that's one of the best reversal setup. you cannot ignore this just because you're expecting HoY FBO in a strong bull trend on the daily chart. just look for a strong signal bar or BO bar after LL DB which will be bar 19 or better 22.
by the close of 24, the market is clearly always In Long, you have to determine the first TG which is Yesterday range MM (2nd TG MM on Daily chart), and stop placement, then entry will be where the RR is 2 or more. so Target is really important to determine the entry zone (in this case last entry can be 24 close or below that, with stop below 22)
I would recommend you study Dr.Brooks 2019-2023 daily setups specifically blue box entries. there is no sell blue box entry on the open, 19 and 22 are the best trades that you have to force yourself to take them. (and you have all the reasons to do so: Daily Bull Trend, MMU TG, LL DB, Strong Bull Bar COH closing above EMA and 4 bars to the left)
If you have 3 Reasons (Dr.Brooks recommends only 2) just take the reversal trade without any further thought or assumption on what the market is going to do or how it will do.
Hope this helps
oh and I forgot to say to stick to only one chart while trading ETH or RTH, (define SRs like GXs and watch only one chart during the session) try to simplify your trading as much as you can, and don't overthink it.
Thank you Ali for your help, that is indeed helpfull, I will do my best to improve and practice with all this tips.
HoY/LoY FBO setups work best in TR conditions on the daily chart or when you have a weak daily L1 Sell setup in a bull trend then LoY FBO is a great setup to take using the LTF reversal patterns below the LoY.
Your 100% right with this, I had a bear BIAS because the climatic move on daily and I was looking for what I wanted instead of seeing what is happening
Instead what we got, was a LL DB right at the EMA where the 2nd Low is created by a WB, that's one of the best reversal setup. you cannot ignore this just because you're expecting HoY FBO in a strong bull trend on the daily chart
Also true.. I saw the setup but I wasnt sure because the TTR and as you said I was overthinking ( I shouldnt take trades at the middle of TR ), I cant see the WB, it is the Micro wedge formed by the las 3 bars? I am not good with micro patterns, it is something that I need to work on
by the close of 24, the market is clearly always In Long, you have to determine the first TG which is Yesterday range MM (2nd TG MM on Daily chart), and stop placement, then entry will be where the RR is 2 or more. so Target is really important to determine the entry zone (in this case last entry can be 24 close or below that, with stop below 22)
I have a question here, it is good to move my SL below 22 in order to have a 2iR TG or it is better to stick to PA and use the swing low?
oh and I forgot to say to stick to only one chart while trading ETH or RTH, (define SRs like GXs and watch only one chart during the session) try to simplify your trading as much as you can, and don't overthink it.
Okay, I have a problem with this because I see that the market used to end patterns at the open for the ETH, like wedges or MM, theres also good LQ (liquidity) zones that dosnt exist on RTH and I dont know what to do exactly being honest, I also have a problem when I want to take a HoY entry for example but GX took the highs before the NY open, I dont know if the LQ is still there or if the patterns works exactly the same. Today for example big news at pre market created a new All Time High and I was waiting to test that zone before taking the short setup because I thought yesterday was super climatic ( maybe I am being Biased again ) then the market started to BO down after a Wedge Top + FBO of HoY but I didnt take it because I thought that the new High was more important than the HoY which was taken in GX...
I dont know how to deal with that and maybe I should just trade RTH and forget about GX I dont know, but today is the second trend day that I miss, I will post my analisis later for today but as I sais I was a trapped out trader again 🤦♂️
And again, thank you a lot for your help.
You are all invited to join and comment on my analysis or what you would have done, all this is helping me a lot not only to my discipline as a trader but also to be more aware of what I do and find my mistakes, I am sure that this can help many people who are going through the same thing, so I would like if you have any advice or questions to write here without any problem.
Thank you a lot
You're welcome. happy to help!
I have a question here, it is good to move my SL below 22 in order to have a 2iR TG or it is better to stick to PA and use the swing low?
22 is OK too as per my experience because it's the bottom of the bull BO, if our premise is valid price should not get below 18 anymore (BOP). but 19 is the best stop placement. both should be fine.
your 2nd question: you can watch ETH for the first hour or two then switch to RTH. but I personally watch the ETH Chart all the time because I trade CFD and also Asia and EU sessions are important for me.
about LQ, everything must happen in the NY Session, so if the NY Session trading above the HoY can still become FBO even if the GX has taken HoY out before. But yes that is not an ideal case, in general, every LQ should be used for the first time, not 2nd.
also, the market usually takes out HoY/LoY in the NY Session. By experience, you'll see that this is not a big problem. you should just do a lot of studies about HoY/LoY and find lots of examples of what has worked and what has not.
About today's PA, I would also normally wait for extreme test, but this was climactic R, you see wedge top but not enough fine then Wait for the BO PB setups to confirm the reversal. 9 was the king bar : ) I've talked about it in my journal. not only a very strong bar COL C below many bars and below the ETH EMA but also has multiple TG below: GXL, Bottom of Y EoD Buy Climax and MMD based on the CPI Bar. probably not an A+ Setup but enough reason to take the trade for Obvious TGs.
Again Train Blue Box entries a lot, I've seen so many of them that I can easily spot them on the 1min chart too. 9 is such of an entry
About today's PA, I would also normally wait for extreme test, but this was climactic R, you see wedge top but not enough fine then Wait for the BO PB setups to confirm the reversal
Okay, I was overthinking again and I couldnt take the setup because I was waiting to test the highs before the BO.
I need to work a lot on that and forget about every little nuance that makes me hesitate, It is true that GXH was above HoY but that dosnt mean that bar 9 + WT wasnt a good setup by itself. I knew about the targets and I Saw the setup but I managed to convince myself to not take It because I was missing the GXH.
Thats important, the market dont need to be perfect, if theres something reasonable It is okay to take the chance. Overthinking and try to see every scenario is something that I need to measure in order to be able to take trades,
Thank you
I like what you are doing here Alejandro, good stuff, keep it up! But as I remind myself, it will take a lot of work and time to work out the nuances and be able to execute consistently, so don't give up!
Today for me major swing setups are sell b8 and buy 56.
Re: GXH. We already had news bar climax bar / FBO in GX, it does not need to re-test the highs, it is a climax/FBO, climactic reversals don't usually get DT/DB before testing the other side of the climax. Just like on RTH HOY FBO sell setup, you just take it immediately you don't wait for a re-test of the extreme, because it is not really a trend that requires that re-test.
Re: GXH. We already had news bar climax bar / FBO in GX, it does not need to re-test the highs, it is a climax/FBO, climactic reversals don't usually get DT/DB before testing the other side of the climax. Just like on RTH HOY FBO sell setup, you just take it immediately you don't wait for a re-test of the extreme, because it is not really a trend that requires that re-test.
Thank you Daniel, yes you are right I will work on that and also I am going to Focus on RTH chart in order to keep things simple, only Mark GXH/L and work with that but keep in mind what you just said and be okay taking setups at HoY if they are good even if GXH is not tested.
And yes It Will take a lot of time to fix my nuances but thanks to this work and all the help that I am getting from you is going to speed Up the process.
Thank you
July 2024 Thursday 11 ( 5min MES futures )
In order to make things simple I am going to only show RTH chart and forget about ETH, the only thing that I am going to be aware of ETH is GXH/L I am going to show you a chart where I explain my lines and whats their meaning in order to not have to show the same thing over and over again and only focus on the chart with trades.
The chart will show 2 days, yesterday’s PA and today’s PA, so we can see some context
Green Line 100% long = All Time High
Green line but only with todays length = GXH
In the future it is possible that I will have to show you some new lines like HoW / LoW / 50% Week etc.
With that being said lets start with the day.
Yesterday was a Huge Trend day and also a Buy Climax on daily chart, we also have wedges all over the HTF, monthly, weely, daily… so It was a matter of time that we could have an Exhaustion Bar.
PP scenarios:
1.-Reversal down, so HoY its important level, but we also had huge news at GX that broke HoY and pushes the market to a new All Time High that was reversed before NY open.
2.- TR, after huge Trend or climax at the end of yesteday, the market use to have a TR open before BO ( if there is any BO ), we also had huge news on Pre market so I was wondering that maybe we could stay inside the news bar for a while.
Those were my main scenarios because I found more bullish days unexpected, but as you know we need to have a clear mind and dont be surprised by anything.
Trades
Theres a lot of reasons to sell all the way down, but it is a huge trend and this kind of days trapped traders out, because they wait for a PB that never happend and the price keeps going lower, so if you want to join the trend you have to sell something, use any excuse and use the correct SL
As I said in my last post I wasnt able to take this trade, why? I saw the setup, WT + FBO HoY + Strong SB but even with that I wasnt able to take it just because I thought that GXH was a important level, the highs of that CPI bar, because of that I completly missed the trend.
What I am trying to say with this is that we shouldnt be so riggid in order to take trades, it is pretty hard to find something that checks all your needs, and we need to take any setup that have 2 or more good reasons to take it, here I had a lot of reasons but I supose that I am still a scared trader that is always looking for perfection, ( Als analogy between Einstein and Forest Gump hits hard here…I am not saying that I am near close to Einstein but you know what I mean ) Thanks to the people that posted on this blog, now I am able to see those things more clearly so I expect to do it better from now on.
As you know from my past trades I am not good at joining Trends, and even If I was thinking on LMT sell that retest on GXL I am trying to avoid LMT orders but at the same time I wasnt able to sell the L1 because my SL was HUGE, I dont have a big account so I cant just sell small and scale in lower if the first entry is that big, but I could just sell one micro and hope for the best, maybe some profit is better than nothing, even if the 2iR is not possible after that huge BO, but this is something that I need to work on, what should I do if I miss the the trade at the top?
So, this was a BE day for me, no trades, I missed my opportunity and I couldnt sell later because the price was melting down and I was afraid, I am always thinking in reversals as soon as I enter those late trends moves and it seems like my fears have control over my PA analisis, I have a long way to improve but I am glad that I am moving forward little by little.
Have a nice day!
July 2024 Friday 12 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a huge Bear Trend Day CoL and that could lead to some scenarios:
1.-TR Open but we have to keep in mind that 50% of yesterday's PA was a TR that could be forming a MTR HL in order to let trapped Daily Bulls an exit
2.-Bear BO, if bears can show strenght, yesterday was a huge bear signal bar, reversing the las Bull BO in a single day, but at the same time is the first bar breaking a Bull MC so it is important to wait and see what could happen. One important point is that Pre market news took LoY and reverse, and maybe that is something that I should keep in mind in order to know that the market could not go there again and it didnt.
Trades
Well…as you can imagine I missed the Trend again, I thought bar 5 could be a good Buy because of Yesterday MTR and the BO + FT of the TR and GXH but being honest that 50% PB target was way to close to my entry and Bears havent even tried the 2nd attempt to reverse the BO so I couldnt take the trade, it has good points on favor but I also think that the TG and the PA wasnt that good in order to have an explosive Trend.
Before the price reached the 50% PB we started to have some big tails and dojis so I was fine with my analisis but then the price keeps racing up and could be aiming to let Daily trapped bulls exit, but again no PB’s so no entry for me.
The 2nd entry Long is good in order to BPA but I was aware of that possible DT after that big PB that was able to create big bear bars below EMA, I could expect the last Bull push after 20 EMA gap but I wasnt so sure about bulls breaking much higher having ATH there, but they did.
At the end we had the EoD STC but as I said on the chart I dont like the EoD STC/BTC setups, they look way to risky for me.
I have huge problems with Trends and I still have to do a lot of work with my mental and my BIAS, it seems like if the market dont reach the levels that I am looking for before forming the pattern to take a entry I am not able to take it..I talk a lot about this and I know the problem is there but even if I am able to think about it I am not able to act on it yet.
I find trend from the open difficult as well, as they usually fail, forming a leg in TR and not forming the HOD/LOD in the first few bars. I am starting to see though that if the move makes sense from HTF/yday/premarket then odds are higher of it working (like the reasons you gave). While I am trying to not trade GX it seems worthwhile to review when assessing an early entry on first 6 bars... if the RTH open is a leg3 wedge top when looking at GX, then I would suspect the odds are lower of that LOD on first couple bars holding. I don't have the data to support this but seems to have some validity anecdotally.