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Hi,
I think posting and discussion about trading mistake has been beneficial for me. And I also have a question regarding ii as signal bar(s) and about taking PW short vs waiting for TL break for this scenario. Please hear me out.
At bar 25, I was debating myself whether to short bellow.
Context, the positive:
- We had W top 4 10 15, and now having nested W top 10 15 25.
- Plenty of space to MA.
However, I counter argued with the negative context:
- Still AIL
- It's still a steep bull trend without strong trend line break to MA.
- The move to 20 was SW and did not quite touch MA. So that was a sign of strength for the BL.
- The move to 25 was not quite parabolic (no clear trend channel line overshooting).
The signal bar was ii. Had it closing on its low, I planned to get short bellow to scalp half at the 20 bar area around MA, swing the other half and get out quick at first sign of possible move up because the possibility of a DT MTR later.
So my question regarding "ii is that". Is ii as signal bar (in this context) a strong signal bar regardless of it being dojis with tails, no need for it to closing on its low? What if 25 was a small BLD?
My question regarding "W short vs waiting for TL break" is that: was my plan for get short reasonable? Is it better to wait for a trend line break and test of the high first before thinking about get short? Waiting for TL break, I would have missed out the entire move though as bellow (even though I did missed out regardless 🤣).
Next, 26 got big tail got me think the bear case was weak. Because of that, and 27, 30 being too close to MA I did not consider get short. That and that and 31 was a bull bar, I also did not consider get short. Would you do different?
I went long above 33 and get out at break even on 36 after 35 OD tested the 31 BSSB, FBO above MA, and BFT for 33 buy. Was this reasonable?
Any thoughts or feedbacks are appreciated!
I agree with the wedge top. Also, 23-25 looks like an iii FF pattern. Looks like the trade would be to sell below bar 27, which is a bear bar closing near it's low. I get the hesitation as there does not seem to be enough bars to call this a MTR and it's also above the 20 EMA, but I would like to hear other opinion on this as well. Nice trade if you take it though.
PS: Bar 67 was a tough one for the MAG bar traders... oops!
If you didnt want to short bar 27-30 above the MA, why would you get long at bar 33 just below MA?
Bar 32 is also a big bear bar closing near low so I'm guessing these are the bulls giving up and probably second leg down?
Hi,
why would you get long at bar 33 just below MA?
I saw it as a MA gap bar, the move down was 2 legged move that broke from the W top.
31 was a BSSB, 32 got tail at bottom, 33 bad FT so 32 possible vacuum.
I expected a move up to test the high for a possible bull trend continuation or MTR.
Yes there where 2 legs but i think you can count the legs again after a give up bar. This is how i would look at it, but like to be corrected if im wrong.
