BPA Telegram Group Journal

Hi Mr. Carpet,

Here is what I see. I don't trade ES, so please take this as a much pure PA analysis. I'm not familiar with how ES behaves depending on time, and I'm not considering that here.

First Impression

That buy is more like a for TP of HHMTR, not for buy to expect trend continuation - creating new HH. Still, I think testing the highest price of the bull trend is totally reasonable to expect. However, looking for testing the highest high after HHMTR attempt means looking for DTMTR or any 2nd MTR attempt, to me. In that case I want to see at least 1xIR to the high. And I don't see that in the buy setup, at least to my trading style.

I see the exits are excellent. I would exit at 61C.

I wonder where are the your initial stop and targets for this entry?

Market Phase

Not sure how you drew the bull channel, but the chart I attached is what I do.

I see a credible HHMTR. MMPR(Measured move projected resistance) especially you can find it in higher TF + WT is my favorite HHMTR setup. And this time you can see the MMPR in H1 chart and it has two parallel BLTCL(Bull Trend Channel Line). Means it is at a possible BTR top and BLTCL.

From my backtesting, the 1st reasonable target for HHMTR is PSL(Prior Swing Low). And if the sell off is strong enough to expect a 2LD(2nd Leg Down), I look for LHMTR and converting into a reversal. Then if it keeps going, the next target is the beginning of the BLT, which is 13L.

Entry

I like that EMA first touch too. But since I see the HHMTR and BLTTL, I rather to wait for touching at least one of them and the FT. There is still a tiny room from your entry and the my TL. And since I expect the first TLBO or at least its attempt after the HHMTR, I like waiting how the FT of TLBO goes.

Here, it got a sideways TLBO. In that case, my expectation of TR at the end of BLT and BLT gets much broader (the green BLT). I wouldn't buy in this case because even bulls can agree with lower prices, the deeper PB to the green TL, because technically that still remains in a BLT. However, because of the tight BRMCH from MTR and bad RR to go long, not enough bulls remained.

I might buy below the long tail 55L only if next bar test that L. Which never came here. Stop is below MMPS of the bear leg - which is also 33L - means it has 1xIR with reasonable wide stop and target. but still… if the sell off is that much strong, I rather to wait and see the 2LD attempt of the bear leg down, which ends up as a TTR below the EMA.

Stop

To buy this, the stop has to be really far (for me). You could see the bottom of 2nd push up in the BLT as a MSL(Major Swing Low), but that trend (with the blue TL) has got a TLBO, means it is now broader (BLT with the red TL). I think reasonable MSL is now 30L or 29L if you trade this PA as a BLT. It unreasonably wide. I have to expect 25% BLBO of the BLTCL to get the reward of 1xIR. So I rather to take opposite.

Target

Highest High of the BLT. Again, which is too close since the stop has to be wide.

Exit

61C or below it. I don’t think I can do that well as you did I bought that.

I hope it helps to some extent.

P.S.

Thank you for posting as always! I enjoyed reading this PA, and I've added it to my HHMTR collection!

First, I like that you are able to take a loss, reassess and get in line with the trend.  Very nice!!!  That skill is probably the most important aspect beyond any "reading of the bars".  It is the "personality flex" that allows for long term achievment.

Next, the idea of entering at market vs at the close of the bars.  The concepts tests 2 different aspects and relates to risk.  Entering before the close of a bar is relying on good skills to read the momentum.  There is less risk at the close of bars because of this.  This affects both your 1st short, as well as perhaps the ema long.  You will understand this, and simply reflect and pull out charts and look at your statistics.

The ema is not a "strong" support or resistance metric, except when has been shown to be so throughout the session.  Some considerations:

1. The market moved up 1/2% in 1 hour without touch of ema.  Wow. . . Walked the dog and missed it I did.  However, this is an extreme move.  Catch a few of those . . . 🙂 [and you took a good portion]
2. As stated the EMA is not hard support or resistance.  The concept holds true within the market cycle of a potential retest, and "potential" support and here are the exceptions:
   1. Exhaustive moves may completely retrace.  The probability of this is increased by the 1/2% in an hour move.
   2. The last pushes up are 8 bars.  Followed by several much stronger bear bars, much fewer in number  covering the same distance.  This is much stronger bear pressure.
   3. The size of the selloff - you have to expect a second test based on the size of the movement itself, so anything, even "at the ema" is suspect until this 2nd testing.
   4. The bar which touches the ema - a perfect selling bar closing on its low too.  Buying is definitely premature on this concept along.  40 as support is lower however, this isn't a guarantee.  This with the ema is probably why the trade was taken, however with the context, a little more bullish activity and the completion of a second bear attempt because of the sharp selling might have been a good consideration.

Nice read on 60 and being comfortable with reassessing and changing your position.  Good work!

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Big thanks for your feedbacks, R and Eric!

Hello friends,

I think today's most interesting price action were things that didn't happen. Like not being able to reach Last Week's Low magnet (RTH) and not continuing lower after 55 even though looked like rejecting off top of broad bear channel. 

I sold below 52 for multiple reasons (15M EMA, L2, top of PS broad bear CH) but exited BE after disappointing 53 instead of a good FT bar and worrying that 5M EMA was offering support. 

Definitely curious what happens if bears trigger their weekly L2 (on RTH) as that could lead to big swing days all the way to weekly EMA.

Opinions/feedback welcome,
CH

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Today sold below 42 for MTR swing. Considered taking profit at LOD but decided to hold for COY gap closure. When saw bull reversal thought first break of tight MC so should at least attempt resumption down to let trapped bears above 52 out (at least at midpoint if they scaled in higher). Didn't work and exited BE. 

In hindsight exiting above 53 looks like the right answer. What would others have done?

Thanks,
CH
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BPA Telegram Group

Hey CH,

thank you for sharing your trade. I took this short, too, a little bit earlier while 41 was forming and I wish I would have held till LOD! I exited while 47 bounced from support 18 low because of fearing a deep pullback. There was lots of bull pressure - strong gap up and spbl - so I was sure that a midday reversal would most likely become a trading range day and not a bear trend day. And if it becomes a bear trend day, the pullback at LOD might be very deep. So my target for this trade was LOD. As I see in your BPA telegram group - which by the way is great! - you can hold your trades very long, my topic is exiting winners too early, lol!

So the PA before the opening and in the first half of the day, and the overlap and tails during this sell off could have been a warning, that at some point, a pullback gets deep or even reverses this parabolic bear trend.

So why not exiting at LOD bounce or above 52  - which was a hidden H2 buy - or while 53 is forming and planning to reenter quick, if bulls don`t show signs of strengh?

Wish you good trades!

Hardy

Well, first on taking a very nice setup and holding. . . kudos!!  The key question becomes are you swinging, scalping or both?  If you are trading 2 contracts then holding to the LOD and trading out 1 contract to hold the other until maximum potential, then the actions make fair sense.  Using the end of day rules here very much can apply (especially in low probability situations which is how the end of day rules have been setup).

For the case that this is 1 contract.  How many trends happen a month that are 11 bars in a micro-channel?  Not too many so you know you are working with a low probability situation.  How do you recognize a gift to be able to take advantage of it?  Bar 53 is also exceptional.  Also worth reviewing Al's rules on pullback percentages and the probability of continuation.  You already are aware of the importance of 50%, but there is a larger number Al references too.

This is a worthy event to potentially research and update rules.  How much more profit this month was "available" but not captured.  There are errors for mistakes as well as missed opportunities.  Reflecting back, how do you see this (and if no change is made because of research and sticking to your rules that is perfect.  It is the continued research for improvement that is important)?

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!

Thanks for the feedback Hardy and Eric!