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I'm watching the breakout from a support, and then the spike and then it just keeps going.
I have 3 fears:
1. If I trade near a support, it may reverse
2. If I take trade after the breakout from the support, it reversed
3. If I joined in the spike, it reversed
This happened to me many times so I'm burned by it. Any tips on knowing when to do what?
Your fears are actually possible outcomes with an attached probability. You can take the trades as long as you manage them to have a positive trader's equation. Anyway you just pasted a chart but didn't tell where you wanted to enter, so with no details little can be said!
Thank you so much for the reply. So the support is the 2nd pink horizontal line from the top.
As you can see if I entered prior to that 2nd horizontal line, there's a strong support suggested by the large bull bar to the left. That's my first fear.
For my second fear, if I enter after the support, there is a reversal bar. That spooked me out.
If I waited for confirmation bar after the support, my fear is the V reversal.
I've been burned by all three scenarios and yes my stop in this case should be at the top of the breakout. That's like $300 worth of risk.
So my question is, should I enter only after support and seeing a bear bar closing at the bottom? That's what I got from the lectures from Al.
As you can see if I entered prior to that 2nd horizontal line, there's a strong support suggested by the large bull bar to the left. That's my first fear.
The bottom of a big bull bar alone does not make it a strong support. The overall context is much important. Here I don't see the bars to the left but when the MKT reached the support, it created a big tail below so bulls tried to create a DB. Yet, then you got two consecutive bear bars so this bottom attempt was failing and you could draw a MM down (failed DB). Actually, you had another Failed DB above with consecutive bear bars so this was one reasonable entry to enter woth some space before the big bull bar bottom support.
For my second fear, if I enter after the support, there is a reversal bar. That spooked me out.
I don't know what reversal bar are you referring to but if you got a BO and FT below a DB, you will probably get at least two legs down, maybe down to the MM. Hence, you can sell any of the bear bars within the BO safely because even if you get a reversal bar, it will most likely become a PB and be followed by the said second leg down.
If I waited for confirmation bar after the support, my fear is the V reversal.
V reversals are very rare. Same logic apply than before, the probability favors a second leg down so you can sell and ride the PB or wait for the PB and sell if you want to reduce risk but, sometimes, you will lose the opportunity. Here the PB entry would have been selling below the small bull bar following the BO below the DB, so the risk would be the same than for the BO entry in the bar before, but other times you will get a deeper PB testing the BO point and the risk will be smalller (although the probability as well, no free lunch).
I've been burned by all three scenarios and yes my stop in this case should be at the top of the breakout. That's like $300 worth of risk.
If this is too much risk either you trade smaller, if you can, you pass on the trade or, the better option, you stop entering on BOs and instead wait for the PBs. You will risk less but will see the MKT leaving without you more often. Being on the sidelines is much less painful than losing 300 USD!
So my question is, should I enter only after support and seeing a bear bar closing at the bottom? That's what I got from the lectures from Al.
I would try to enter on PBs first. Once you make money with PBs, try the BOs...
Thank you for a very detailed response. I really appreciate it.