The support forum is built with (1) General and FAQ forums for common trading queries received from aspiring and experienced traders, and (2) forums for course video topics. How to Trade Price Action and How to Trade Forex Price Action videos are consolidated into common forums.
Brooks Trading Course social media communities
Hello,
I need some help please with understanding. Or maybe I am confusing myself.
My personality and comfort trading style fits the following:
- I prefer scalping daily
- I prefer trading with high probability
- I prefer trading with trend
- I prefer trading with bullish and bearish context.
- I prefer trades with risk reward is between 0.5 and 1.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VjVdxhkH/
Questions
- Is the 1st green dot buy consider a low probability buy trade
- Is the 2nd green dot consider a high probability buy trade? I believe yes, because I wait for 3 bulls bar to enter, although in middle of the range.
- Is the black dot low probability or high probability? I believe this is high probability because I am selling a resistance in an overall bear context chart, looking left. For this chart I think the trend is down, so selling a resistance favors higher probability of a win.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Iaze29mS/
For example, in this chart I think buying the green dot is low probability of win because the overall context of the chart is bearish.
And selling the at the black dot is high probability of a win, because I am selling with the current bearish context of the market. However, I think I am trading in trading range.
I am appreciate any help, to clear things up.
Thank you kindly
Is the 1st green dot buy consider a low probability buy trade
Nop, the low probability trade is the SB just before (which is a fantastic swing setup but, as all swings, it is not high probability). But after a second consecutive bull bar COH coming from a sell climax you have higher probability and definitely after the third bull bar COH with growing bodies.
Is the 2nd green dot consider a high probability buy trade? I believe yes, because I wait for 3 bulls bar to enter, although in middle of the range.
Yes, third bull bar, bodies becoming bigger, AIL, so no bearish context.
s the black dot low probability or high probability? I believe this is high probability because I am selling a resistance in an overall bear context chart, looking left. For this chart I think the trend is down, so selling a resistance favors higher probability of a win.
The MKT just went AIL with growing bars coming from a great swing buy setup, this couldn't be more bullish so every sell is a loser until bears create a setup. Even if you are in a long term down trend, when the MKT flips to AIL it won't stop in the first resistance if the PA is strong. In this case, the strong bull setup (sell climax) evolved into an expanding triangle and the bears were able to continue the trend down after a second leg up.
For example, in this chart I think buying the green dot is low probability of win because the overall context of the chart is bearish.
Yes, low probability trade but you have a decent swing buy setup DB HL MTR after a huge climax, so bulls have a chance. Next bar COH made it HP.
And selling the at the black dot is high probability of a win, because I am selling with the current bearish context of the market. However, I think I am trading in trading range.
You are not in a TR, the black dot bull bar COH and the previous one represented bears giving-up, flipped the MKT to AIL and both were HP buys. Same problem than with black dot above: don't sell when bulls come from a good swing setup followed by consecutive bull bars COH because they will have at least a second leg up but could be a several-hours swing up. If you wanted to sell, you needed a second entry and preferably with a strong setup.
Hello ludopuig,
Thank you, thank you, thank you for the detailed response.
Sorry for the delay in response as I took 3 days off from studying the chart, I needed a break as the market has been giving me some challenges lately. I am still learning and getting better.
Thank you so much.
Yes, third bull bar, bodies becoming bigger, AIL, so no bearish context.
I am bit confused, why do you say no bearish context? If I look to the left, its looks pretty bearish. Perhaps, I am confusing myself.
Thank you
Hi Michael, happy to help: when you come from a good swing setup and get consecutive bull bars, the MKT switches to Always-in Long and the short-term context become bullish for the time being. Yes, you can be in a long-term bear trend but at that time the MKT is AIL so you can expect at least a second leg up or maybe a swing up if the bulls break above prior lower highs (finishing the bear trend). Here they momentarily did so the bear trend was over but bears quickly regained control with surprising consecutive bear bars that switched the MKT back to AIS and was followed by another leg down (here a spike and MM down).
In any case, at your black dot the MKT just became AIL so even if bears could regain control you could not sell without a strong setup, a second entry or strong BO, and here you got both with the big bear bar that created the expanding triangle.
Hi Michael, happy to help: when you come from a good swing setup and get consecutive bull bars, the MKT switches to Always-in Long and the short-term context become bullish for the time being. Yes, you can be in a long-term bear trend but at that time the MKT is AIL so you can expect at least a second leg up or maybe a swing up if the bulls break above prior lower highs (finishing the bear trend). Here they momentarily did so the bear trend was over but bears quickly regained control with surprising consecutive bear bars that switched the MKT back to AIS and was followed by another leg down (here a spike and MM down).
In any case, at your black dot the MKT just became AIL so even if bears could regain control you could not sell without a strong setup, a second entry or strong BO, and here you got both with the big bear bar that created the expanding triangle.
Thank you ludopuig for responding to me sir
This is makes better sense. I personally I am only interested in the Always - In Long or Always In Short, short term bullish/bearish context with high probability setups, High probability setups just make feel better.
High probability trades do require more risk, and less reward, but I am ok with this.
I think what I need to do is stop looking so far left, because I do trade the extended timeframe chart.
Yes, for scalping the long-term context is useless and mostly you need to care about the last few bars.
Yes, for scalping the long-term context is useless and mostly you need to care about the last few bars.
Hello ludopuig,
Yes, I am definitely scalping, so short term and current context, 5-10 bars is only use full for me. So it best I stop looking so far left and focus on a bull or bear leg.
Thank you sir.
Yes, for scalping the long-term context is useless and mostly you need to care about the last few bars.
Hello ludopuig,
I prefer to wait for a pattern setup and then wait a few bars until price show more conviction or high probability of a scalp. My risk is always higher than reward.
My risk is always higher than reward.
This is a difficult path but go ahead if you feel it is the way you should go!
My risk is always higher than reward.
This is a difficult path but go ahead if you feel it is the way you should go!
Thanks ludopuig, thanks for the encouragement
It is actually not difficult at all. I like wins. My mental can not withstand 60% chances of losses waiting for swings.
