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Sorry, what bar are you referring to?
4th October, when I asked if my sim trade was alright, you said that I traded just the opposite of what I should have. The sell below bar 24. It is marked by Al on his BTC EOD markups as a sell.
I asked because I am finding some divergence between BTC and BPA markups which you say is normal. So, I was clarifying the tricky trades.
Because most of the time you can either buy or sell and make money if you correctly manage the trade, you many times can both buy and sell at the same bar.
Yes, Al does say that is true for 90% of the bars and I try to drill that psychology into myself always which has significantly helped me stay calm during trading.
but BPA might tell you (I haven't checked, this is just an example) that this is a BTC bar (for a scalp up, because you are low in a TR) but BTC might tell you it is a swing short (and if the trader scaled-in higher, he made money as well).
Yes, on that very day, I traded a bit different and that is exactly what happened. I shorted below 24L and scaled in higher which resulted in a BE exit(small profit) on my first short and an okay profit on my second entry.
Your are VERY focused on entries.
Yes, absolutely. If I don't enter correctly, I won't really have a trade to manage. Moreover, I think I am still in the beginner stage, so I prefer to break the big problem down to small pieces and conquer them one at a time. Once I become fluent in one, I can finally move on to the next part and I wouldn't have to worry about completeness.
Where would I scale in? Where is my stop?
This is easier, at least for me at this point. I would obviously scale in on pull-backs, namely second entries and even perhaps third entries which are rare to find if the original trade was alright(especially if you prefer near-perfect entries).
My stops would always be at the bottom of the trend if I am entering breakouts and if I am trading reversals, it would be the bottom of the reversal bar usually. Difficult to explain without any reference but you should get the idea given the long time you are trading.
Although, we all know that Al hardly ever waits for the stop to trigger and he often exits much before things start to look bad and he just takes the next entry if the exit was just a false alarm.
Is this a swing or a scalp (decided before entry).
That part hardly remains unclear. The trick I will have to try and learn is, to identify good setups that can result in swing profits and scalp out the ones that would not. I am given to understand, that will be the ace up my sleeve. I was not fully comfortable with this mentality very much as it will rely a lot on my abilities(which will develop slowly over time), I went ahead and found a trick that Al probably mentioned few times but never fully explored. I sharpen my edge in the traders' equation by finding lopsided option strategies which will improve the RR ratio compared to the underlying.
Wheres my target? What's my "R" based on my entry, target and stoploss. You should know ALL of this to control your position sizing (EXTREMELY IMPORTANT)... and ALL BEFORE entry.
Again, I am trying to control all this using lopsided option strategies which are often found in galore. In most of the cases, I am having uniform stop value even when that uniformity is not present in the underlying(say because of increased volatility) as it is quite easy to control with options.
Appreciate your suggestions Sandpaddict. I am thinking of all the factors you mentioned and like I said, I am trying and breaking the problem into smaller pieces and that way, it will be easier for me to manage.
I felt sad learning how much money you lost in the markets. I have too and have learnt my lesson in the past. I ain't trading this time unless I know that I will be profitable and I will do extensive testing before I trade actual money.
All the best! Happy learning and trading!
"4th October, when I asked if my sim trade was alright, you said that I traded just the opposite of what I should have. The sell below bar 24. It is marked by Al on his BTC EOD markups as a sell.
I asked because I am finding some divergence between BTC and BPA markups which you say is normal. So, I was clarifying the tricky trades."
I have rarely seen any divergence between BTC and BPA markups, unless they have been typos. I have seen a few typos made on BPA markups.
Talking about Oct. 4th, the sell is not below B24 but below B25. On BTC is looks like the sell is marked below 24 because of the spacing or the lack of spacing between bars but if you look closely at the chart, you will see the sell is marked below B25.
The markups on BTC charts are for swing traders who trade Always-In. This means traders who buy or sell below a bull bar closing on its high or bear bar closing on its lows when they occur in a reasonable context.
So selling below 25 even though it is a loosing entry, it is still an entry for an Always-In swing trader because we are still in a swing down since Bar 3 and theoretically you can enter at any time during a swing as long as you use the proper swing stop.
So bar 25 is a bear bar closing on its low, we are still in a swing down meaning the direction of the market is Always-In Short, so an Always-In trader can short below 25 but he has to exit above a bull bar closing on its high, which is 27.
This whole thing brings up to the issue that I raised regarding BLE4 and BRE4 and Always-In trading. I have been spending a lot of time learning this new approach to trading and trade management but has had to watch a lot of webinars and connect the dots by myself.
It is a long topic. But mostly remember that BTC shows trades for a swing trader who is trading Always-In and BPA markups are for a trader with a scalper's mentality and approach to trading. So a trader with a scalper's mentality will not short below 25 since we might be in a trading range since 14 and if so we are at the bottom of a possible trading range and therefore it is bad to short 25 for a scalp.
Now a swing trader sees 25 as a breakout below the neckline of a Double Top Bear Flag with 15 and 22, he is looking for a Measured Move down based on the pattern and shorts the 25 bar which also closes on its low.
My advice to you is to first find out for yourself what kind of a trading style you have. And based on your trading style pick one of those approaching to trading and study and practice it intensely. At the beginning don't try to reconcile them for you will get confused. Just understand that there are different approaches to trading.
Thank you David, for responding.
I have rarely seen any divergence between BTC and BPA markups, unless they have been typos. I have seen a few typos made on BPA markups.
Sorry, but I actually have when not only the timings of a trade are different but the direction of the trade itself are opposite in bias.
Talking about Oct. 4th, the sell is not below B24 but below B25. On BTC is looks like the sell is marked below 24 because of the spacing or the lack of spacing between bars but if you look closely at the chart, you will see the sell is marked below B25.
There are two markings, below bar 24L and below bar 25L both. At least, that is what it looks to me and that is what seems reasonable at my current understanding limitations. I have marked them with arrows and you can refer them if you want to.
This whole thing brings up to the issue that I raised regarding BLE4 and BRE4 and Always-In trading. I have been spending a lot of time learning this new approach to trading and trade management but has had to watch a lot of webinars and connect the dots by myself.
Do let us know if you have figured it out and you are up for sharing what you've learnt. 🙂
It is a long topic. But mostly remember that BTC shows trades for a swing trader who is trading Always-In and BPA markups are for a trader with a scalper's mentality and approach to trading. So a trader with a scalper's mentality will not short below 25 since we might be in a trading range since 14 and if so we are at the bottom of a possible trading range and therefore it is bad to short 25 for a scalp.
My advice to you is to first find out for yourself what kind of a trading style you have. And based on your trading style pick one of those approaching to trading and study and practice it intensely. At the beginning don't try to reconcile them for you will get confused. Just understand that there are different approaches to trading.
This is where my primary problem is. I can't settle for just one. If I know there could be 2 tools at my disposal or there are 2 ways to use a weapon, I would always prefer to learn both of them and use them at my discretion. It may sound brazen, impudent, audacious and overtly ambitious but I have set my sights on reaching the level Al is at currently or will be even further in the future. I can't understand, when I am setting a target, why would I settle for anything below the best. That is what Al is to me and that's the reason he has my utmost respect.
Coming back to your point, I think the market price action should dictate what approach would I use while trading. I can't survive swing trading in a TR and I can't survive scalping in a swing move and I have to adapt. I think that is pretty much a fit with my personality as well.
So, my current plan is keep pushing forward in understanding both BPA and BTC setups. I am trying my best to do that and hopefully, my queries would rise to a level soon when they would be worth the time for those who answer them as well.
There are two markings, below bar 24L and below bar 25L both. At least, that is what it looks to me and that is what seems reasonable at my current understanding limitations. I have marked them with arrows and you can refer them if you want to.
Those two markings are either for going short below B25 or B26 or going short below B25 or the neckline of the Double Top Bear Flag which just below the 24L
This is where my primary problem is. I can't settle for just one. If I know there could be 2 tools at my disposal or there are 2 ways to use a weapon, I would always prefer to learn both of them and use them at my discretion. It may sound brazen, impudent, audacious and overtly ambitious but I have set my sights on reaching the level Al is at currently or will be even further in the future.
Some of the questions you are asking imply you don't differentiate between the two styles. I would think first it is good to know that there are two different styles and only then use them in combination. Anyway, I don't want to go into philosophical discussions here.
So, my current plan is keep pushing forward in understanding both BPA and BTC setups.
To understand BPA setups you have to subscribe and watch Al's webinars. BPA setups are related to the webinars and BTC setups are connected to the style of trading as discussed in his Trading Course. That is why there are two different sites. I would strongly recommend subscribing to the Webinars.
For the above, from a beginner trader and for an intermediate trader that wants his heart to stay fine for long years, any sell above 3H is to take profits from longs, the short at 22L can take it for a scalp but better to be thinking long and waiting for the bears to be trapped, at 26H. Expert traders can sell 3H but you won't reach that stage in your trading career if you do it now! 😉
Selling the 3H is a terrible trade only with the benefit of hindsight. This is how it looked real-time using ALL the market data (ETH included) on a 5 & 1 minute chart. As Al always says, "Every tick matters", so to pretend like the overnight trading didn't take place is...interesting.
I don't post very much because it just isn't the best use of my time (don't expect any replies from me), but trading happens when you are looking at the hard right edge of the chart, not with the benefit of hindsight.
Again nothing to do with chart reading and everything to do with trade management.
I rally don't get why you say that it is about trade management and not about chart reading when I am managing my trade based in what I read. Management comes after reading, not before nor it is a completely separated thing, you need both to make money with PA.
Agreed that PA is integral to reading charts but I personally believe (and maybe this is why I create confusion) is that chart reading and trading are separate skills.
Yes you need to understand charts but not rely on them as they are not the future. They are the past. Sure they let you set up good R/R but even that's a fantasy because you really dont know the future. It just enables us to place a trade.
What's far more important is YOUR win/loss ratio. YOUR avg win. YOUR average loss. YOUR win rate... your REAL LIVE TRADERS EQUATION. YOUR real stats.
Otherwise the chart dictates what that should be.
If you can enter almost anywhere and make money. Can't you enter randomly and make money? Can't you exit randomly and make money?
I'm not being facetious or argumentative I'm serious.
Also for me it's NEVER about this ONE trade. It's about the aggregate.
YES charts are important but it's not about buying above a bull bar after a MTR and a DB and holding for 2 "R" or a few points below a bear bar.
Chart trading is ONLY one peice of the puzzle.
Absolutely, but who is saying other thing? But if you can't read, you can't manage based on your read, you have to base it in something else. Here we rely on PA to do so.
Um like absolutely everybody!
Nobody talks about right hand edge trading or STATS.
Everything is hindsight. It's about this pattern equals do this.
Learning and trading are different. Once its seen it's not "out of sample" per say. You can't unseen it. YOU CANNOT LOOK AT A CHART IN RETROSPECT WITHOUT INFLUENCING YOUR VIEW OF IT.
We trade from the hard right not from the soft glow of the whole chart in retrospect. I get you have to teach that way but it's like saying just learn in this kiddy pool it's the same as the open ocean. If you can swim in one you can swim in both.
I also have come from trying system building and have learnt a few things doing that. One being your entry+exit = profit/loss.
What if you were to systematize Als teachings? Seems it's SUPER CLEAR EXACTLY what to do so this should be pretty easy to code right?
My god Al has just repeated the same thing five hundred thousand times. In books, blogs, videos, encyclopedias of charts... Just code it. Little blue boxes Buy, little red ones Sell.
Al's success has so much more to do with Als intuition of knowing what hes trying to teach than teaching I think.
I remember working for a company early in my career and was blown away by this salesman. He held regular meetings and taught everyone how he did it... till I was told to shadow with him one day. He skipped all the steps. Only seen his best customers. Rarely tried gaining new ones. And broke every rule he was teaching in these weekly super sales meetings. That changed me forever. (Maybe for the worst. I dunno)
There is only one way to trade this chart today and that's with limit orders.
No offense but this is absolutely wrong. You can also trade it like this: doing nothing until a stop order setup forms (18L, 20H, 21L). Yes, boring, but with higher probability of success in the long-term!
Again I respect your point of view. Mines just different.
Yes you could have made money the way you say I don't even need to look. But that's typical Al teaching and it's just another way I trade differently. (I really don't get it. Don't know why you'd trade with stops in there) I came out OK that day but I know I'd probably trade it differently given a groundhog day situation but I would think Al sould have traded it EXACTLY the same way for a thousand years if he woke up to that day everday for eternity?
Again I mean no disrespect. I just enjoy the clarity that I'm missing.
I trade my way and it varies but theres ONLY ONE Al way?
As always... good trading to all!
...but trading happens when you are looking at the hard right edge of the chart, not with the benefit of hindsight.
Bud Fox gets it.
...but trading happens when you are looking at the hard right edge of the chart, not with the benefit of hindsight.
Bud Fox gets it.
I am very happy that you both get it. I am here only to help newbies with the charts, not to fight with anyone. I wish you the best...
Always appreciate your help, ludopuig.
Some of the questions you are asking imply you don't differentiate between the two styles. I would think first it is good to know that there are two different styles and only then use them in combination. Anyway, I don't want to go into philosophical discussions here.
Not sure what you mean, but if you could help me a little more here if you think there is something wrong that I am doing, would appreciate your help.
To understand BPA setups you have to subscribe and watch Al's webinars. BPA setups are related to the webinars and BTC setups are connected to the style of trading as discussed in his Trading Course. That is why there are two different sites. I would strongly recommend subscribing to the Webinars.
Yes, I plan to in the future. It is just not feasible for me at this point of time.
I am very happy that you both get it. I am here only to help newbies with the charts, not to fight with anyone. I wish you the best...
I agree. So am I. That's why I am here saying YES you can enter using charts but you can't rely on charts or plain old PA to be consistently profitable.
Al does talk about money management but not really TRADE management. Other than exit on an opposite signal. I'm sure he doesn't trade like that. He'll exit or hold or add based on his interpretation. Just like you did at 4 points. And held instead of exiting. And you had a long bias.
Not sure why your making me seem like a bad guy. Im not arguing. I'm sure the newer traders are struggling. Guaranteed.
And that's why I'm here too. To say yes, everyone goes through this and it's not just chart reading you need to learn. It's a process. And you have to figure it out for yourself... not Al.
What I'm saying is when new traders start learning they should stay on sim till consistently profitable. They will loose for a LONG time. Then loose less. Then break even then start making money... THEN they start ALL OVER with real money... loosing... loosing less... breaking even... ect...
Anybody talking about sim vs real money? Nope. And that's like kiddy pool vs ocean.
And in my mind it makes it MUCH HARDER if they think it's as easy as just reading charts.
Al's teachings are remarkable. But not the end all be all. You can read charts as good as Al and still loose money I'm sure.
We all trade in the UNKNOWABLE so to act like Al NEVER has a loosing trade or if you loose money its because YOU DIDN'T do what Al would have done is, I believe, misguided and harmful to progress.
Just as I said, I am not arguing. Your points are all valid. They just seem they are all based on Als technical analysis.
All I'm saying is theres more than just T.A. and P.A.
P.A. That's the framework. That is the games rules we have to play in.
That is the FIELD we play in... but It's NOT the game.
I feel I'm going in circles. But it's detrimental for new traders to realize it's about learning to keep more money than you loose OVER A ROLLING AVERAGE of trades. Not any ONE trade. ONE trade. ONE trade.
I think Al would agree.
If you lost money today it's not because you entered wrong... its because you EXITED WRONG!
TRADE MANAGEMENT!
