TTR MTR 50% Probability

Hi w,

I think that Al means a 50% chance of a successful swing. MTRs form all the time and fail, it's probably not very interesting to only show them forming. The key here is the climax that ended the bull move. A climax is definitely a strong predictor of a possible reversal (or a very deep PB).

Here's another thread with a similar chart where a TTR formed and then lead to an MTR swing but without a climax, so probably was only 40% chance there.

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/support-forum/trading-journals/good-bob-volman-setup-also-a-good-bpa-setup/#post-6101

Hope that helped,
CH
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BPA Telegram Group

MTR has only 40% possibility of a swing, so I think MTR with a TTR should have a swing probability no better than 40%. (since it's TTR, smaller risk so even worse probability!)

After climax, usually TR follows. In TR, you see both buy and sell setups. If you sell after a bull leg, you are likely taking a MTR setup!

I think Al said 50% just like he treats a triangle (BOM)

it has 50% chances of BO up or down, and 50% probability of failure after the BO.

Anyway, I think MTR in the TTR after the climax should not have better "swing" probability than other MTRs.

MTRs have an initial probability of approximately 40%.  The reason is because there is initial inherent bias and the trade attempt is in the opposite direction (the reversal part of MTR).  As noted a buy climax has occurred and it is the 3rd push.  This bring other elements into play which helps to balance the probabilities to BOM:  1.  Not initial breakout.  2.  Price has moved quite a bit.  3. Quite a number of bars have printed since the climax (resolution through time).  So with BOM, probabilities are more often fairly balanced and thus the 50/50 probability until, as noted within the slide there is a BO with follow through.

Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!