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Watching the course videos, studying intently, and trading sim using the concepts presented by Mr. Brooks, it has occurred to me that due to requisite stop placement being so wide (orders of magnitude greater than anything I have EVER utilized) that it looks like I am really effectively trading the 15m chart IF I use the correct stop placement. So, I decided I would start investigating that. I first checked on the probability of an outside bar happening on the 15m charts. I see that on the current 15m I see on my screen as of today 031621, that there are 143 candles, and I found 13 OVBs so that yields a 0.09 probability of getting stopped out if I place my stop 1 tick beyond the back end of the 15m signal bar [entering off of] with a 1 tick violation of the front end of the signal bar.
OK so a 90% probability of NOT getting stopped out this way seems pretty reasonable. Has anyone done any studies on relative benefit of trading the 15m vs the 5m and realizing maybe better accuracy due to less overall volatility displayed graphically? Because the correct stop placement from the course is really correspondent with what I see on my 15m charts while trading on the 5m... Pretty interesting to note that most of these OVBs occurred after a wimp bar range which would be a much reduced bar range compared to all others but technically within the last 8 bars. So that is saying that IF I see a wimp bar range, that it is possible to see an outside bar after that... these probabilities could be used along with trending definition as per the course. I am just fascinated by what Mr. Brooks has presented here. Basically that if I utilize the 15m chart for entry / exit, that there should be fewer net trading decisions requisite during each trading day, so less chances for me to screw up, and I have always demonstrated a really good proclivity for being able to screw up LOL... 27 15m bars in a 405 minute trading day.
I have been trading for a long time (not successfully consistently at all) basically on the 1m chart and the 2m chart, and fast tick charts. So I am in the process of switching to becoming a swing trader intraday, because I can see the real money is in trading the swings no matter how incredibly junky they always look. Except for when they trend, the 15m chart can look very nice indeed. Just a much cleaner looking chart. Since getting access to the course, my eyes have been opened wide. I sure wish I had known about this course years ago. I do know that my sim results are starting to improve already and I have not yet finished the course, because I am really getting into the videos, studying my charts, thinking about the material, and that takes time.
I first checked on the probability of an outside bar happening on the 15m charts. I see that on the current 15m I see on my screen as of today 031621, that there are 143 candles, and I found 13 OVBs so that yields a 0.09 probability of getting stopped out if I place my stop 1 tick beyond the back end of the 15m signal bar [entering off of] with a 1 tick violation of the front end of the signal bar.
OK so a 90% probability of NOT getting stopped out this way seems pretty reasonable
Check this logic because there is no way to get a 90% other than using wide stops and scaling-in. A setup in a 15 min chart will have the same probability than in the 5 min or any other.
Basically that if I utilize the 15m chart for entry / exit, that there should be fewer net trading decisions requisite during each trading day, so less chances for me to screw up, and I have always demonstrated a really good proclivity for being able to screw up LOL... 27 15m bars in a 405 minute trading day.
This can be a better argument to trade the 15 min 😉
Except for when they trend, the 15m chart can look very nice indeed. Just a much cleaner looking chart.
You definitively have to give it a try!