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Hey all, I've done some programmatic exploration of price action in hopes of validating some of the percentages that Al has mentioned in his work and would like to report my findings here. This one had to do with confirming the chance of having seen HOD or LOD by bar 18, as well as all the other bars. After running the code against 4400 days of ES historical data the results are as follows:
Chance of Bar 1 remaining HOD/LOD by EOD: 25%
Chance of having seen HOD/LOD by bar 18: 81.1%
Basically, exactly as Al said it is. It's just nice to validate this empirically.
I'm making all the code available for others to try. I posted a detailed writeup here: https://bpachat.com/code/chanceseenhodlod and code here: https://github.com/carpethooligan/pa-explorer
Curious to hear if others have performed similar studies on BPA and what their results were!
Thank you for doing and for sharing those results.
