The support forum is built with (1) General and FAQ forums for common trading queries received from aspiring and experienced traders, and (2) forums for course video topics. How to Trade Price Action and How to Trade Forex Price Action videos are consolidated into common forums.
Brooks Trading Course social media communities
40B Entering Late In Trends
@Bar87 is there high probability that price will get back to B76 high ? "Buy the close Bulls76, disappointed B77, had no chance to exit breakeven, therefore will scale in lower to get back to B76 high" (?)
Hi w.
60% chance of getting back to 76 close later.
If you scale in correctly, 80% chance of avoiding loss. (80% of breakeven at the midpoint)
in this case, 87 low is testing 61 BO bar low, and 76 close is BTC magnet, so higher prob of MTR up.
However, the bear leg from 77-87 seems rather strong considering the small signal bar 87, so I would wait for FT. If we get bear BO below, 87 H would be good target as well as 76 H.
YY
However, the bear leg from 77-87 seems rather strong
Agree. I didn't trade it, but afterwards seeing wedge 78-83 , FBO wedge 85, bear buy signal 86 (?) + second signal 87.
Shorting 34 and 95 also looked bad at the time.
I think it depends on your personality and trading style.
I prefer high probability trades but I also don't like scalp, which is kind of contradiction. But skipping 34 and selling 35L, 36H(20 gap and wedge but seems ok to fade) or 37L seems reasonable and doable enough to me. Same for 95, I'd feel more comfortable selling 96 or 97FT(at least 2nd leg down likely) and try to break even if situation goes bad. (BE is "stupid", but I just sometimes accept it to trade comfortably)
34, 87 and 95 seems easy in hindsight, but I would end up also taking 30H (FF failed bear BO and 20 gap, possible 2nd leg bear trap), 72L(wedge and 20 gap, testing wedge 36H) etc...
30 and 72 are still reasonable but need sophisticated management including scaling in. (30H was almost tested by 76, which means 30 was indeed reasonable. 72 was in TTR so perhaps bad trade) That's why I just skip those trades. It's too difficult to do for me. Spotting those setups, however, is still important even if you don't take them. Recognizing 87 as reasonable allows you to take 88 or 90(BTC), although it didn't lead to a swing. If you know 30 is failed reasonable trade, 60 would be higher probability trade and you can enter more comfortably there.
I'm currently trading low risk, high quality signals, like 34,87,95. Using a 5 point money stop, so after the breakout it's more of a gamble. At the pivot point, if it's a good setup, maybe more likely to go the other direction.
34, 87 and 95 seems easy in hindsight
Exactly. and they look shaky when it's live.
BE is "stupid"
Wouldn't that depend on the PA?
Example> Sell 34, then after 37 closes move stop to BE. Why risk losing at that point ?
Wouldn't that depend on the PA?
Example> Sell 34, then after 37 closes move stop to BE. Why risk losing at that point ?
I said BE is stupid because I remember Al saying so in some videos. As you pointed out, it depends on the PA, But the decision of BE itself is not based on any PA, and most of the time based on fear. That's why Al says it should be avoided. But I have also seen Al writing in his book "scalp half, move SL to BE, and swing the rest" so I guess it's still a good management if you are doing it with a plan. I also saw a very experienced trader saying on the forum that "the key to trading BO well is to get out fast if the FT bars look bad". (just like BTC bulls do right?) That's why I accept BE as an useful tool to protect me not only in terms of money but also mentally.
