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Can anyone explain context for the short below bar 42? I didn’t think the probability was high enough for a swing coming after the sell climax, wedge, and 3 bull bars before it.
I see the possibility of the bear channel and test of MA and that the sell off was strong enough that should get small leg down but I thought the reasons above were enough to hold off on this trade.
I think the reasons you gave are pretty good context. This was low probability trade, but as a swing entry there was potential for a continuation of the bear channel, which would have been high reward compared to the risk. It being a L2 makes it a slightly higher probability.
I wouldn't take this entry, but I think it is a mathematically sound setup. I'd also be disappointed by the tail on the entry bar - definitely have to get out above the next bull bar if you took this setup.
It's a LH DT, Wedge Top as annotated on the chart.
It's also around 50% pullback and a micro double top with the bar before it.
I didn’t think the probability was high enough for a swing coming after the sell climax, wedge, and 3 bull bars before it.
Yes but after the wedge sell climax we expect 2 legs sideways to up which possibly ended right here. 3 bull bars does reduce the probability though sometimes that can just be a vacuum test of the LH DT since bears stepped away for 2 legs sideways to up after sell climax.
