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Hey,
From 49E, we've been in a TR from the Open, so 80% inertia probability and TR continues.
Comment in Gold (screenshot) says we're now AIS with the consecutive bear bars and now 60% chance of MM down.
But we're now at Support of the Opening Range, so why isn't it a 80% chance we reverse back up and stay in the TR?
Thanks
Hi Noah,
You are absolutely right that we are at the bottom of TR. Apart from that we have to consider the context as well. As AL says if the context suggests the BO from TR then we are in BOM so probability reduces to 50% from 80%.
Hence, as the slide is self explainatory we are AIS, so you should consider selling below FT bar to become more convinced and consider exiting if market makes H2 buy set up at the bottom of TR.
Hope it makes sense.
😊
Noah, Harpreet, my take at it ... (see attached)
Thanks Harpreet - and how does the "context suggests the BO from TR" in this example?
Mike - ah yes, great catch. Thanks!
Context-
1. CC strong bear bars
2. More strong than bull bars.
3. Already formed a LH.
4. Near the top of the bigger TR.
As I mentioned already you can always exit while going down and form H2 buy setup.
Hope it helps !