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EURUSD 5min, box is 10 pips.
I bought on top of the big bull bar and twice later.
Price has left the Channel on the downside and I'm already in the red, at which point do I surrender?
Can I stay in as long as it doesn't go lower then the previous low?
Yes, so far you can hold
I got out and lost a little bit of money but that's ok.
After the big bull bar there were 3 pushes in a horizontal trading range.
At the end a weak leg down.
It feels very unlikely that there would be a fourth push, most of the time something else happens after 3 pushes in my experience.
How would you plan your exit, get out as soon as the third push starts to reverse down?
After the BO at 1, a second leg up was likely but when a lot of TR PA is present, it is risky to enter on BOs (don't do it!), much better to trade buying PBs (be patient!). The second leg up could have ended at the first 2? but instead it created a triangle, which is a possible final flag, before the second leg up, ending at the second 2?. Bar 1 is the SB for this flag that broke out at 2, but then 3 is a bear bar and next bar has a big tail... this is not behaving like it does in trend resumptions so you better look for reasons to exit. Bulls tried the BO above the prior H (first 2?) and got a big tail and a close below the prior H so the final flag premise was getting stronger and now you have to exit. If you didn't exit at the high, you could do it below any bear bar closing on the low, like 5.
In summary, don't buy BOs until you are profitable buying lower risk trades! 🙂
