Higher % after BO

In your example, you can expect more than 60% chance of 1x of the height of the small TR, because

1. you are at the bottom of a spike & channel where the channel is a broad wedge (weak bear trend) & you have a 2nd entry with a great signal bar and also a great entry bar like you said,
2. the odds of the wedge getting a downward BO with FT is 30% at best because of the wide-enough (i.e. weak enough) channel,
3. there are no gaps in the wedge; bulls entering at previous low and scaling in are making money in a bear trend, so if you buy, you will probably make money here too,
4. 2nd leg in the wedge also had a strong down move but it ended with a DB and with a good signal bar; you can expect the same behavior to repeat on the 3rd leg due to inertia,
5. you already have 2 legs in the 3rd leg of the wedge; bears' minimum objective is reached and they will probably take profits and the 2nd leg of the 3rd leg is very strong which is possibly a 2nd leg trap for the bears.

It is a very strong buy setup.

Hi W, just to add (my 2c could be wrong)

what does that mean?

I might have misunderstood your question, but I think you were asking this: 

Postado por: w

↑

If we see a credible reversal with a good signal bar, and it gets a good entry bar (2 consecutive medium trend bars)  can we assume 60% chance of 1x of the height of both bars?

The probability increases with each new bar printed, aiming for prices to test the wedge top, which is the next resistance level.

No?

Postado por: mike

↑

The probability increases with each new bar printed, aiming for prices to test the wedge top, which is the next resistance level.

 

No?

You could be right, but entering too late seems worse (could be wrong).

In the example, the 4th entry is very late, but it worked if you can hold thru big pullbacks.

Selling bar 24 turned out to be a bad bet today in MNQ today.  Maybe this was  high probability, but 'minor reversal turned major'? 😯 

You've got a MM down (MMD) equal size. Bears are taking profit somewhere around there.

You've got a W with L1-L2-L3 where L2 hast more or less the same size as L3. So bears are taking usually profit and bulls know that. Most of the time L3 of a W get tested and can lead to a MM up. Additionally b24 closed inside b23 what can lead to the conclusion that bears are getting weaker.

Look at b1 and b2 which are already signaling that TR is most likely.

In general AL already included all the general info in his chart with his colored writings.

Postado por: HUBERT K.

↑

You've got a MM down (MMD) equal size. Bears are taking profit somewhere around there.

great markup, I agree.

Similar situation in Al's slide? (could be wrong)

  I like the 2nd entry (the entry bar= 2 consecutive), but the others seem like it's better to wait (= lower probability).  After a big rally, it seems like the best bears can get is a TR.

But the pullbacks look good after that.  Not sure if those are high % , but I think so.

maybe re-name the slide "If want Higher Probability: Wait for Great Entry Bar"

(after EB, seems like "chasing the trade") ?

Here is a drawing of the last leg (TR) up which shows how to look at that. 

B1 is the BO down of that TR, B2 is the retest of the TR BO and B3 is the BO confirmation of the BO out of the last TR. This TR starts with the inside bar to the left, as an inside bar is a pause, a PB and therefor a start of a new leg.

If you have access to the BTR recording I can highly recommend to watch the session of Tim Stout. He is explaining this all in his sessions.

Is buying bar 6 (stop below 5) high probability for 1x ?

Check it out, could be wrong

Daily Chart--  Looks like a wedge bottom/bull flag, 50% PB + Gap @19000

Considering the HTF context, how good/bad is the first entry, bar #5 ? (signal bar stop)  Not much buying pressure on the LTF