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Emini Testing Moving Average

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Trading Update: Monday April 29, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini has rallied for two legs and is testing the moving average, which is important resistance above.
  • Last Thursday, an outside up bar was formed, and the bulls tried to close above it last Friday. However, the bulls were unable to do so due to the resistance above.
  • The bears want to form a reversal bar today or tomorrow, closing on its low. This would be a second entry short at the moving average.
  • The daily chart is in a trading range, and the probability of a breakout up or down is closer to 50%.
  • The bears expect a second leg down of the April selloff. However, the reversal up over the past five trading days is enough to make the market a trading range. This increases the probability that there are buyers below, near the 5,000 round number and the April 25th low.
  • Traders will pay close attention to see what kind of signal bar the bears can get for the second entry short at the moving average.
  • If today is a bear bar closing on its low, there is an added risk of a test of 5,000 and the April low.
  • The bulls want to prevent the bears from getting a bear reversal bar closing on its low. They are hopeful that the next day or two will get an upside breakout above the moving average.
  • Next, they would want a measured move-up for the bear flag from the April 19th low to the April 25th high, projecting up.
  • Overall, traders will pay close attention to how determined the bears are to get a reversal bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini has been in a trading range for most of the overnight session.
  • The market will probably test above last week’s high (5,146.5) and trigger the buy signal bar on the weekly chart.
  • There will probably be sellers above, and the market will pull back briefly. If this happens, the bull may try to break above the Lask week’s high later today.
  • Traders should assume that today, there will be a lot of trading range price action on the open. This means traders should be patient and not rush to trade.
  • Most traders should wait 6-12 bar before placing a trade unless they can make quick decisions.
  • The Globex range is small (around 13 points); this increases the odds that the U.S. Session will expand the range, meaning there is potential for a breakout on the open.
  • Tomorrow is the final trading day of the month. The bears want April to close below the March low (5,126.5), which would end the 6-bar bull micro channel on the monthly. This price level will likely be a magnet for the next two days.
  • There is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open. This means the market will likely be for a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom on the open, creating a trading range.
  • Most opens have an opening swing.
  • Because of what I said above regarding the Globex range being small, traders should look for an opening swing to double the range of the Globex market. This means there is potential for a swing trader to last two legs and two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour.
  • Lastly, being patient is the most important thing on the open. If one is confused regarding how to trade the market in front of them, they are best stepping aside until they are equipped to trade the current market conditions.

Emini Intra Day Update

  • The 5-minute chart has had a lot of trading range price action today.
  • The bears formed a two-bar selloff with bars 2-. However, it was a sell vacuum test of the middle of a trading range and led to a reversal up with bar 6.
  • The bulls formed a rally, with bar 6 being a second entry long. However, the rally had a lot of overlapping bars and was unlikely to break far above bars 2-3. While the bulls did a good job with the rally up to bar 10, there were overlapping bars. This increased the risk of a reversal or deep pullback, which is what happened.
  • As of bar 47, the market is in the middle of a triangle. The market is slightly more bullish than bearish due to the bulls owning the market in terms of time, more consecutive bull bars than bear bars today).
  • Bar 48, bulls are trying to get an upside breakout of the overall trading range. The risk the bulls face is a 2nd leg trap.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trend From Open Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed an outside down bar last Friday after testing the moving average.
  • The bears hope this will become a bear flag, leading to a selloff back down to the April low.
  • However, the bulls have been getting several bull bars closing near their highs over the past two weeks. This increases the risk of higher prices.
  • The bulls did a good job testing the April 2nd low. Next, the bulls need to close above the April 2nd low. This would end the argument of a possible negative gap with the April 2nd low.
  • The bulls want today to close on its high and for tomorrow to be a strong entry bar.
  • With the market at the moving average, the bulls need to break above it. Otherwise, the odds will favor the market testing down lower.
  • Overall, the rally up to the April 26 high is strong enough for a second leg up, even if we get a deep pullback first.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trap Then Bear Trap and Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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