Trading Update: Wednesday October 23, 2024
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a bull bar yesterday, adding another bar to the tight trading range that has lasted more than 6 bars. This is a breakout mode pattern, making the probability close to 50% for both the bulls and bears.
- The 6,000 round number is a logical magnet for the market to reach. While the odds favor the 6,000 round number getting tested, every bar added to the tight trading range lowers the probability.
- This means that the sideways the market goes, the increased risk of a reversal down to the July high before the market reaches the 6,000 round number.
- The daily 20–period moving average is close enough to the current price level that the market may have to test it.
- Even if the market gets down to the moving average and the July high, the odds will favor a minor reversal. This means that a trading range is more likely to have a strong selloff into a bear trend on the daily chart.
- The more important thing is that the market is about the moving average and forming a tight trading range. This means that the market is neutral, and the odds slightly favor the bulls. However, if the probability was 60% for the bulls, the market would not be in a tight trading range. This means that the probability is much closer to 50% for both bulls and bears.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped down on the open and has gone sideways for the first 6 bars of the session. This increases the odds of a trading range open and the market going skidways.
- The bulls are hopeful that today, they will follow the same pattern as yesterday and form a trend from the open bull trend.
- It is better for most traders to wait for clarity in the form of a strong breakout.
- If today is going to form a trend day up or down, there will be plenty of time to enter once the probability favors the trending direction.
- Today gapped down with reasonable size, which increases the odds of the bears getting a second leg down today.
- The selloff down to bar 11 looks like a bear leg in what will become a trading range. It is a tight bear channel. However, the bears are near support, yesterday’s low. This increases the odds of a trading range and reversal up back to the low of the day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex end of day market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
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EURUSD what to expect going forward
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See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.