Trading Update: Monday September 16, 2024
End of day video review
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed 2nd bull follow-through bar after the September 11th outside up bar. However, the bodies are getting smaller. This is a warning that the market may pull back soon.
- The market is getting close enough to the August high that it will probably have a test above it in order for traders to be convinced it has been adequately tested.
- The bull bodies over the past three trading days are getting smaller, which increases the risk of the market getting a pullback soon.
- The Bulls have done a great job with the reversal up from the September 6th low. However, the risk is now getting big for the bulls, and the market is getting high in the trading range on the daily chart.
- This increases the odds of bulls beginning to take partial profits soon, leading to a pullback.
- Today is probably not going to form a strong bull trend bar on the daily chart and will likely create more disappointment for the bulls. This means that traders should pay attention to the open of the day as the market may try and close below it, ending the bull streak.
- The high of last Friday is another magnet. If the bears are unable to get a close below the open of the day, they will at least try to force today to close below the high of last Friday.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini opened inside of an overall trading range.
- The bears tried to get a selloff on the first two bars. However, the bulls formed a strong rally with bars 4 and 5.
- The breakout up to bar 5 was strong enough for a second leg up; however, the bulls failed, and the market reversed down.
- The reversal down to bar 13 is good for the bears, a trading range is more likely than a bear trend.
- The bears will probably get a second leg down after the downside breakout to the bar 13 low. However, there are probably buyers not far below it, and the market will likely go sideways.
- The Emini has been far aways from the 60-minute moving average for several bars. This increases the risk that the Emini may test the 60-minute moving average sometime today.
- At the moment, bar 13 is strong enough for a second leg down. The bulls are trying to prevent the bar 19 retest from breaking out below the bar 13 low.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
