Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures
The market formed a weekly Emini breakout into new all-time high. The bulls want another leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being March 21 and July 16 highs and the embedded wedge in the current leg up with the first two legs being August 30 and September 26 highs. The bears hope that the recent sideways candlesticks (mid-Sept to early Oct) will be the final flag of the move.
S&P500 Emini futures
The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart
- This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high with a prominent tail below.
- Last week, we said that the market may still trade slightly higher. While the candlesticks are becoming smaller indicating a loss of momentum, until the bears can create strong bear bars with follow-through selling, the odds slightly favor sideways to up still.
- The bulls hope the market is in a broad bull channel phase and want a resumption of the move.
- They want another leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being March 21 and July 16 highs and the embedded wedge in the current leg up with the first two legs being August 30 and September 26 highs.
- The third leg up is currently underway.
- They must create more follow-through buying to increase the odds of a strong leg up.
- The bears see the current rally as a retest of the prior all-time high (Jul).
- They want a reversal from a double top (Jul 16 and Oct 11) and a higher high major trend reversal.
- They hope that the recent sideways candlesticks (mid-Sept to early Oct) will be the final flag of the move.
- If the market trades higher, they want a failed breakout forming a strong reversal bar or a micro double top.
- The problem with the bear’s case is that they haven’t been able to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling. Until they can do that, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
- They need to create a few strong bear bars to indicate that they are back in control.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
- The market may still trade slightly higher.
- Traders will see if the bulls can get more follow-through bull bars as we head into the election day in less than a month.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall, forming bear bars (profit-taking) in the weeks ahead instead?
- For now, until the bears can create strong bear bars, odds slightly favor sideways to up still.
- The election day represents some uncertainty. Traders should be prepared in case there are some volatility in the weeks ahead.
The Daily S&P 500 Emini chart
- The market formed a small pullback on Monday but lacked follow-through selling. The Emini then reversed higher for the rest of the week, closing in new all-time high territory.
- Previously, we said that the market remains Always In Long. If the market continues to stall (around July high), we may see a minor pullback testing the 20-day EMA.
- The market formed pullbacks to the 20-day EMA in the last 2 weeks but lacked follow-through selling.
- The bulls hope the rally is in a broad bull channel phase and want a resumption of the move.
- They want a strong breakout above the prior all-time high with follow-through buying.
- They want the third leg up completing the large wedge pattern with the first two legs being on March 21 and July 16.
- They also want the third leg up completing the embedded wedge with the first two legs being on August 26 and September 26.
- They hope the third leg up will have 2 legs and last about the same amount of time as the prior legs (10-12 bars).
- The bears see the current rally as a retest of the prior all-time high.
- They want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal and a double top (Jul 16).
- They hope that the recent sideways consolidation will be the final flag of the move.
- The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not yet been able to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling.
- They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
- For now, the market remains Always In Long.
- Until the bears can create strong bear bars with follow-through selling, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
- For now, traders will see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying, breaking into new all-time high territory.
- Or will the market trade higher but start to stall instead?
- The election day represents some uncertainty. Traders should be prepared in case there are some volatility in the weeks ahead.
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