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No Weekly EURUSD Follow-through

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

There was no weekly EURUSD follow-through bull bar following last week’s close above the 20-week EMA. The bulls need to create follow-through buying trading above the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of retesting the December high. The bears see the recent moves simply as a deep pullback and want at least a small retest of the April 16 low (even if it forms a higher low)

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: No FT Bull Bar, Inside Bear Doji, No Weekly EURUSD Follow-through
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was an inside bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below.
  • Last week, we said that traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-week EMA, or will they fail to do so, like the third week of March (inside bear bar)?
  • While the bulls were not able to create a follow-through bull bar, the bear doji had a long tail below indicating that the bears are not yet as strong as they would like to be.
  • The bulls got a reversal from around the lower third of the large trading range from a higher low major trend reversal, a larger wedge bull flag (Mar 15, Oct 3, and Apr 16) and a wedge in the third leg down (Dec 8, Feb 14, and Apr 16).
  • They have a 6-bar bull microchannel in the current leg up.  That means persistent buying.
  • Sometimes there may be buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull microchannel.
  • The bulls need to create follow-through buying trading above the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of retesting the December high.
  • They want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
  • The bears see the recent moves simply as a deep pullback and want at least a small retest of the April 16 low (even if it forms a higher low).
  • They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Apr 9 and May 16) and a lower high.
  • They hope to get another leg down completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being February 14 and April 16. 
  • Traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar closing below the 20-week EMA.
  • If they do, that will increase the odds of at least a small retest of the April 16 low.
  • The bears hope that the bear trend line will act as resistance. If the market trades higher, the bears want a larger double top bear flag with the March 8 high.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is an inside bear bar, the market is in breakout mode.
  • The bulls want a breakout above while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
  • Sometimes there may be buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull microchannel.
  • The market is currently trading around the middle of the trading range. It is an area of balance.
  • The EURUSD is in a 79-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until there is a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Wedge Bear Flag, Small Retest High?
  • The EURUSD traded sideways to down for the week testing the 20-day EMA. Friday was a bull inside bar closing in its upper half.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
  • The bulls got a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Dec 8, Feb 14, and Apr 16).
  • They see this week simply as a pullback and want at least a small retest of the May 16 high. The small retest may happen in the first half of next week.
  • If the market trades lower, they want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears see the current move as a deep pullback forming a wedge bear flag (Apr 26, May 3, and May 16) and a double top bear flag (Apr 9 and May 16).
  • They want another leg down completing the larger wedge pattern with the first two legs being February 14 and April 16.
  • They want at least a small retest of the April 16 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
  • They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.
  • If the market trades higher, the bears want a reversal from a small double top with the May 16 high.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can get at least a small second leg sideways to up early next week, followed by a strong breakout with follow-through buying.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around or below the May 16 high area?
  • If the bears can create strong consecutive bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, the odds will swing in favor of a retest of the April 16 low.
  • The market is currently trading around the middle of the trading range which can be an area of balance.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until there is a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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