Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bear trend bar closing below the daily and weekly EMA – exponential moving average. The surprise bear bar did not trigger 8-26 bad buy signal bar.
On the daily chart, the market went sideways around the broken support from 6/24 for couple of weeks and then broke down below this week. This week had a big outside down bar on Tuesday followed by a couple of doji days followed by a big bear bar on Friday.
Last week’s report mentioned that the market could either go higher and try to reverse or go lower and try to reverse. It looks like the market is first going lower.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear trend bar closing on its low below the weekly EMA.
- It is a surprisingly strong bear bar, given the bad sell signal bar 2 weeks ago (bull doji bar), and the bad entry bar last week (bear bar closing in the upper half).
- The market should have triggered the buy signal bar of last week for at least a small second leg up. Instead, the market just fell this week.
- If there were buyers of last week’s close expecting a leg up this week, they are trapped. This will likely lead to a second leg down.
- The market is back below the 8-5 bad bull reversal bar, and below the bear close of 7-29.
- It is at the support area shown on the weekly chart below the close of the 8-5 bar.
- Bears need a follow-through bar next week. Given we are in the temporary support area, it is less likely for a good follow-through bear bar, and more likely a doji bar.
- If next week is a doji bar, it could indicate that the market is setting up a triangle.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- The last two weeks on the daily chart looked like a bear leg in a trading range , a wedge pullback to the daily and weekly EMA. This is because of the lack of consecutive bear bars. Last Wednesday closed the bull gap with the high close of 7-31. Last Thursday found temporary support at the weekly EMA with Friday closing as a bull inside bar above the daily EMA, for possibly a 2nd leg up for the move up in August.
- This was a short trading week as Monday was a trading holiday. Instead of the leg up from last Friday, Tuesday went above the Friday close and ended as a big outside down bar closing below both daily and weekly EMA.
- Wednesday and Thursday were both doji days around the Tuesday close.
- Such doji bars can be a limit order buys for a scalp possibly up to the daily EMA. However, Friday was a big bear bar trapping such buyers.
- This is the opposite of how the market broke out above after the doji closes of 8-11 and 8-12. Technically, those closes should have been temporary support as well on the way down this week, but Friday broke down through those levels.
- Because of these reasons, there will likely be a second leg down.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
