Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures June monthly candlestick is a big bull bar with a prominent tail above. It is a new high close of the year. May and June are a pair of uniform bull body and tails above.
The week is a bear doji bar with big tails. Last week’s report said that this week would likely stay below the high of last week and be either an inside bar or a High-1 buy signal bar after triggering the sell signal bar of last week. The week triggered the sell signal bar of last week, and then stayed below the high of last week becoming a bad High-1 buy signal bar.
This is also the mid-point of the year – the end of the 2nd quarter.
The quarterly chart is bullish – the last two quarters are non-climactic bull bars (although with tails), and the quarter before that is a bigger bull bar. The bigger tail on the most recent quarter makes it less bullish because it makes the last two quarters look like two implicit legs rather than consecutive bars in a single leg. There are also two bull closes above the prior high of 2021, so one possible target for the bulls is the measured move of the bodies of the last two quarters.
On the yearly chart, the year so far is a bull trend bar. The question now becomes what’s in store for the 2nd half of the year. The report at the end of last year said that the yearly bar of 2023 is not a good buy signal bar – a big bull inside bar, the body overlapping with the big bear body of 2022. So, it is less likely for 2024 to be a good entry bar, which would translate to a doji bar or bar with tail above. Is it more likely for the next two quarters to be bull trend bars or at least one of them to be doji/bear bars? The latter is more likely.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The June month bar is a big bull bar with a prominent tail above.
- Last month’s report had said that the micro-channel up from November 2023 is likely a spike on a higher timeframe, so there should be at least a 2nd leg up.
- May is likely the start of the 2nd leg up.
- This month is another bull bar in the leg up.
- Given two big bull bars, next month will likely be a pause bar.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear doji bar with long tails.
- As mentioned in the summary, because the monthly bar had already become big enough as of two weeks back, it was less likely that this week would be a bull trend bar or go above last week’s high.
- That would mean this week would either be an inside bar or trigger the sell-signal bar of last week, and then be a buy signal bar.
- Early in the week, the market triggered the sell-signal bar of last week, causing the tail below.
- Friday was a critical day in determining the shape of the weekly, monthly and quarterly bar.
- In the first 30 minutes of Friday morning, the week looked like a big High-1 bull bar and the month was a big bull bar with almost no tail above.
- But then the market reversed for the rest of the day and ended the day as a bear reversal bar with a big tail above.
- As a result, the week is doji bar with big tails and the month has a prominent tail above.
- Given the two good bull bars in the first two weeks of the month, and lack of good sell signal bars, it is likely that there will be another leg up.
- Bears need consecutive bear trend bars closing on their lows like they did in July/August last year to convince traders that the market is transitioning into a trading range or a deeper pullback.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
