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Weekly EURUSD Follow-through buying

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a weekly EURUSD follow-through buying trading above the 20-week EMA. The bulls need to create a breakout above the June high and the triangle with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the trading range high (Dec 28). The bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Jun 4 and July 12) and from around the top of the triangle pattern.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: FT Buying above 20-Week EMA, Weekly EURUSD Follow-through buying
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a consecutive bull bar closing near its high testing the June high.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher. Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar or if the market trades slightly higher but stalls.
  • The bulls got a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 26).
  • They needed to create consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-week EMA to show they were back in control. They got what they wanted.
  • They still need to create a breakout above the June high and the triangle with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a retest of the trading range high (Dec 28).
  • The next targets for the bulls are the March high and the top of the triangle.
  • The bears see the current move simply as a deep pullback and want another leg down to retest the prior leg low (Jun 26).
  • They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Jun 4 and July 12) and from around the top of the triangle pattern.
  • They want the bear trend line to act as resistance.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week. It is not a sell signal bar.
  • Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar breaking above the June high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and close with a long tail above or a bear body?
  • The EURUSD is in an 86-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Parabolic Wedge, Bull Leg, Tight Bull Channel
  • The EURUSD traded sideways to up for the week testing near the June high.
  • Last week, we said that traders will see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying. Or will the market stall around the bear trend line area and reverse back below the 20-day EMA?
  • The market continued higher in a tight bull channel.
  • The bulls got a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 26).
  • They managed to get follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA in the form of a 9-bar bull microchannel. That means strong bulls.
  • They want a breakout above the June high with follow-through buying.
  • If there is a pullback, they want at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg extreme high (now Jul 12).
  • Previously, the bears got another leg down completing the larger wedge pattern (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 26).
  • The third leg down formed a higher low which indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be.
  • They see the current move simply as a deep pullback and a buy vacuum testing the trading range high (June high).
  • They see a larger wedge bear flag forming (Mar 8, Jun 4 and the still developing third leg Jul 12) and a double top bear flag (Jun 4 and Jul 12).
  • They want the bear trend line to act as resistance and want the market to reverse below the 20-day EMA.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying breaking above the June high and the triangle.
  • Or will the market stall around the June high or the bear trend line area and pull back to the 20-day EMA?
  • The current move up is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to up after a small pullback.
  • There may be buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull microchannel.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until there is a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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