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Emini Reached 5,000 and Moving Average Yesterday

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Trading Update: Wednesday February 14, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini sold off yesterday and reached the 5,000 round number and the moving average.
  • The daily chart has been in a bull trend for over three months. The bears are hopeful that they can transition the market into a bear trend. However, that is unlikely without the bears clearly forming a trading range first.
  • The bears need to get strong closes below the moving average as a sign of strong selling pressure.
  • At the moment, the odds favor sideways trading and a bounce lasting a day or two.
  • The selloff yesterday was strong, increasing the risk of a second leg down. However, the market is at the moving average, which is support. This will increase the risk of any pullback being deeper than what traders want.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 23 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market has been in a bull channel for most of the overnight trading hours, following the strong rally late during yesterday’s U.S. session.
  • The bulls are hopeful that they will be above to reverse yesterday’s large selloff. However, more likely, the bulls will be disappointed by any rally.
  • Traders should expect today to have a lot of trading range price action today.
  • Traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars on the open unless they are comfortable making quick decisions.
  • The market often forms a swing trading before the end of the second hour after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means that most traders should try and catch the opening swing because it provides excellent risk/reward with a decent probability.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Bottom and Then Wedge Top

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is going sideways after the bears formed a downside breakout and second leg down.
  • The odds favored a second leg down after the early February bear breakout. This increased the odds of the market falling below the December 8th low.
  • The bears are creating negative gaps (January 16th, February 5th). This increases the risk of a possible small pullback bear trend and lower prices.
  • The bulls need to create a strong bull reversal bar today and halt the selling. Next, there is a need to get an upside breakout above the moving average, which would increase the odds of the market evolving into a trading range.
  • Without closes above the moving average, bears will believe that the bear trend is still underway.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trap Then Wedge Bottom

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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