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Emini Possible Final Flag

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Trading Update: Thursday November 14, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini yesterday formed a doji inside the bar, which is a triangle on a smaller time frame.
  • This is a possible final flag if the market breaks to the upside, meaning that the market will probably create a failed breakout above the high of the past couple of days.
  • The October 17th breakout point high is a logical magnet for the market to test.
  • The market is Always In Long, but the risk is getting big for the bulls. This means that bulls will begin to take partial profits, which will likely cause the market to go sideways.
  • If the bears can add to the selling pressure, that will increase the odds of a reversal down and test of the October 17th high.
  • Because the rally up to the November high is strong, it may need a second leg up, meaning that the first reversal down may fail.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini opened with a small gap down that closed during bar 1. Bar 2-3 formed a strong bear breakout, making the market Always In Short.
  • The bears want a 2nd leg down. However, the reversal up on bar 4 is strong enough to trap the bears into an opening reversal up possibly.
  • The bears will see bars 2-3 as being strong enough for a second leg down.
  • Today, there will probably be a lot of trading range price action on the open.
  • While the bears did a good job with bars 2-3 they should not have allowed bar 4 to create a bull reversal bar. This will disappoint bears who sold the close of bar 3, increasing the odds of bears buying back shorts near the bar 3 close.
  • The bulls want an early low of the day with bar 4. However, they need follow-through buying.
  • The bears got a 2nd leg down with bar 10, however, bar 4 is a problem for the bears. The odds favored buyers below the bar 4 low, scaling in lower. This is why bar 12 formed a bull reversal bar.
  • Bar 11 is a possible low of the day, and the odds favor a second leg up after bar 12.
  • Because of the selling pressure on the open, the bulls will probably not get a strong bull trend day. This means that today will likely be a trading range day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Sell Climax Then Small Pullback Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed another bear bar, closing on its low yesterday.
  • While yesterday’s bar is good for the bears, it is a climactic bar with a smaller tail below compared to the past three consecutive bear bars. This is a warning that the selloff on the daily chart is becoming more parabolic, meaning it may get a reversal soon, and the moving average may be tested.
  • The risk for the bears is getting big, increasing the risk that bears will reduce their risk. If the bulls get a bull reversal bar today, it would be reasonable for the bears to consider buying back shorts above the bar. This would increase the market’s odds of getting a two-legged pullback and testing closer to the moving average.
  • The moving average is far away from the average price. This means the bulls are unlikely to get a sharp reversal up to the moving average. Instead, if the Bulls get a reversal up, it will probably be minor and go sideways. Even if the market goes sideways, that would drag the moving average down to the current price.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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