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Emini Likely Disappointed bulls today

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Trading Update: Wednesday July 3, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini went outside up yesterday after testing near the 5,500 round number and the moving average. This is good for the bulls, however they are likely to be disappointed over the next few trading days.
  • While yesterday is a good bar for the bulls, the context is not all that great. The daily chart has been in a tight bull channel for some time, and the odds favor a trading range development.
  • The daily chart has gone sideways above the moving average for several days. This is a sign that traders are not eager to buy above the moving average and would rather buy above it.
  • The bulls had a chance to buy close to the moving average over the past two trading days.
  • If today is a strong bull trend bar, that will be a sign of eager bulls continuing to buy after today’s breakout.
  • More likely, the bulls who bought near the moving average will take partial profits today, increasing the odds that today is a disappointment bar.
  • This means that today might form a bear trend bar to disappoint the bulls, reminding traders that the market is in a trading range.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today is a half-trading day, and the market closes at 1:15 PM EST. Traders should consider not trading 30 minutes before the close.
  • This is a good day to use patience and be extra cautious when placing trades. Holiday trading days often have a lot of trading range price action and overlapping bars.
  • The Globex market has gone sideways for most of the overnight session.
  • The bulls want a second leg up, which they started to get right before the U.S. Open.
  • Because of what I mentioned above, traders should be cautious regarding yesterday’s high. It is a likely magnet for today.
  • The bears want a failed breakout above yesterday’s high and for the market to close below the open of the day. This would disappoint the bulls on the daily chart.
  • Traders should assume that today, there will be a lot of sideways trading in the open.

Emini Intra-Day Update

  • The Emini is attempting to form a bull trend from the open. However, a bull-trend day is unlikely for the reasons mentioned above.
  • The large doji bar on bar 7 is a reminder that today is likely to be a trading range day.
  • The bulls have done a good job reducing the chances of today becoming a strong bear trend.
  • However, they are allowing too much overlap for traders to conclude that a strong bull trend is underway.  
  • The bears formed three consecutive bear trend bars down to bar 12. As of bar 17, the bears are trying to get a double top in a trading range day.
  • While the microchannel up from bar 12 lowers the probability of selling below bar 17, it is a credible double top in a trading range. This increases the risk of a reversal down to the open of the day. ‘
  • Higher probability of waiting for more selling pressure or 2-3 consecutive bear trend bars following bar 17.
  • Bar 20 went above 17. The bulls want a bull breakout of the bear flag (12-17) and the bears see a trading range. The bulls probably need a clear breakout above the bar 7 high, otherwise a trading range is most likely.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Small Pullback Bull Trend From Open

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is getting the second leg up after the July 1st gap.
  • The odds favor the bulls getting an upside breakout.
  • The bears have had several chances for lower prices after the June 7th downside breakout, and they allowed too much buying pressure on the way down.
  • Today’s breakout is strong enough for a second leg up, even if the bulls get a pullback first.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Small Pullback Bull Trend and Early Close

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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