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Emini Closed Under the October 17th Breakout Point

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Trading Update: Monday November 18, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

Emini Daily Closed Under the October 17th Breakout Point
  • The Emini last Friday sold off and closed below the October 17th breakout point, increasing the odds that the bull channel is converting into a daily chart.
  • Bears are making money selling above new highs, such as October 17th. When bears make money above bars, they are more likely to make money below bars as well.
  • The next target for the bears is the November 4th low, which is a major higher low and the most recent buy climax in the bull channel.
  • At the moment, the odds favor a 2nd leg down and a test of the November 4th low.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Globex market has gone sideways in a trading range for most of the overnight and early morning hours. This increases the odds that the open of the U.S. Session will have a lot of trading range price action.
  • Most traders should consider not trading for 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions.
  • There is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
  • Trading ranges always form a double top/bottom variation or a wedge top/bottom.
  • Since the odds favor a trading range open, traders can wait for one of the patterns mentioned above to form before placing a trade.
  • Most days have an opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to start before the end of the second hour. The opening swing typically lasts for two legs and two hours.
  • There is typically at least a 40% chance that the opening swing will double the opening range.
  • The key to the open is to be patient.
  • Traders should pay attention to last Friday’s low, as it will likely be a magnet.

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Lower High Double Top Then Bear Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily Bears Taking Partial Profits
  • The EURUSD daily chart is beginning to find profit-taking bears. This is due to the risk getting big for the bears and the market getting far from the November 4th major lower high.
  • Bears are no longer interested in selling closes or below bars. Instead, they are taking profits below bars and selling pullbacks.
  • The bulls are hopeful they will be able to create a strong enough bull reversal bar, increasing the odds of a 2nd leg up to the daily 20-period moving average.
  • If today closes near its high, it would be reasonable for Always In Bears to exit above today’s high and wait to see what the pullback looks like.
  • The bulls have a chance for a reversal up; however, it is likely to be minor and lead to a trading range.  
  • The bulls need a series of bull bars if they get a strong reversal up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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