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Emini Buy Climax Closing Beyond 4,450

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Trading Update: Friday June 16, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini had a buy Climax up closing beyond 4,450 and the August 2022 high.
  • The daily chart has had consecutive buy climaxes over the past two weeks. This will increase the odds of the market going sideways for at least a few days.
  • While yesterday’s bar is strong, it is climactic and increases the odds of profit taking and sideways. This means that the breakout point above Wednesday’s high will probably close.
  • The rally up from the May 25th low is tight, which increases the odds that the first reversal down will fail. This increases the odds that the first reversal will get bought and lead to a trading range rather than the start of a bear trend.
  • The bears need to develop more selling pressure before traders are convinced that they can take control of the daily chart. This means the bears will need to market to go sideways or develop strong bear bars closing on their lows.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 10 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The overnight Globex market has gone sideways after yesterday’s strong rally.
  • Today will probably have a lot of trading range price action. With yesterday’s bar being climactic, traders should pay attention to the day’s open as the market will probably try and close below the open.
  • Since yesterday’s rally was climactic, there is a 75% chance of sideways trading lasting two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour. There is a 50% chance of follow-through buying on the open and a 75% chance of sideways trading starting before the end of the second hour.
  • There is only a 25% chance of a bull trend from the open.
  • Traders should assume that the open will have a lot of sideways trading. Therefore, they should be cautious in betting on breakouts.
  • Since today is Friday, weekly support and resistance is important. The bulls want the week to close on its high, and the bears want to create as big of a tail as possible. Traders should be prepared for a surprise breakout up or down late in the day as the weekly chart traders decide on the close of the week.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Bull Trend From The Open

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Surprise Bull Breakout
  • The EURUSD formed a surprise bull breakout yesterday and reached the May 10th breakout point low.
  • The bears hope that yesterday was just a buy vacuum test of resistance. However, the bar is so big that it will probably have at least a small second leg up.
  • Most traders will probably hesitate to sell after a big bar like yesterday. This means the EURUSD will likely go higher and try to test the May high.
  • The daily chart may pull back for a day or two as bulls take partial profits. Some bulls will see yesterday as a gift, a quick windfall of profit in one day. Therefore, they will want to reduce their position since the risk has gotten bigger.
  • Overall, traders will pay close attention to see how the follow-through over the next couple of days is following yesterday’s large bull breakout bar.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min LH DT MTR in Trending Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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