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Emini Bears Need to Do More for Downside Breakout

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Trading Update: Monday September 30, 2024

End of day video review

Brad Wolff Emini EOD Review

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bear inside the bar last Friday, closing near its low. This is a sign that the bears are getting more in control. However, the bears need to do more if they are going to get a downside breakout.
  • The channel up from the September 11th low is tight, which increases the odds that any reversal down will be minor.
  • Last week, broke above the 5,800-round number, creating a new time high. Since the higher time frame charts are beginning to form a trading range, this increases the odds the rally to the 5,800 round number will lead to a pullback over the next several weeks.
  • Before the bears can get a reversal down, they first need to make the market go sideways, which is what they are doing now. After the bears can increase the selling pressure, they will have a chance at a downside breakout.
  • Overall, because of the overlapping bars at a new all-time high, the odds favor a test back to the moving average on the daily chart soon.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Globex market went sideways to down for most of the overnight hours, and buyers found it below last Friday’s high.
  • Because the selloff was weak with a lot of buying pressure on the high time frame charts (60 minutes). The odds favor buyers on the open.
  • Today opened with a bull bar closing near its high, following the small gap down.
  • The bulls were hopeful that this would lead to a bull trend from the open. However, they failed to form follow-through bars, and instead, the market went sideways.
  • The bulls are hopeful that bar 1 will lead to the low of the bay, and the bears want to break below it.
  • If today is going to form a bull trend day, there will be plenty of time to buy when the market is trending.
  • At the moment, the odds for a test are below bar 1 since it has only 20% of the day’s low.
  • The Emini broke below the bar 1 low during bar 12 and reversed back up.
  • As of bar 15, the rally up from bar 12 is strong enough that the low of the day may be in.
  • The bulls will probably get a second leg up from the rally up to the 16 high.
  • The market is still making lower highs and lower lows from last Friday and, therefore, in a broad bear channel. Because the market is getting a lot of bull bars ever since last Friday’s bar 63, the odds are the market will go above the most recent major lower high, bar 66.

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Wedge Top Then Bear Trending Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Trading Range with Bear and Bull Breakouts

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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