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No Weekly EURUSD Follow-through Bear Bar

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

There was no weekly EURUSD follow-through bear bar on the weekly chart. The bulls want at least a retest of the August 26 high. They need to create a strong entry bar next week to increase the odds of a retest and breakout above the August high. The bears hope to get another leg testing near the 20-week EMA. If the market trades higher, they want a reversal from a double top with the August 23 high.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: No FT Selling, Minor PB or DT Bear Flag?, No Weekly EURUSD Follow-through Bear Bar
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a bear doji with a long tail below.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to remain in the sideways to down pullback phase. Traders will see if the bears can create another leg testing near the 20-week EMA or if the market will stall around the September 3 low area instead.
  • The market traded below the September 3 low in the first half of the week but reversed to close in the upper half of the week’s range.
  • Previously, the bulls got a breakout above the December 28 high but lacked follow-through buying.
  • They see the current move as a two-legged pullback and want a resumption of the bull leg.
  • They want at least a retest of the August 26 high.
  • They need to create a strong entry bar next week to increase the odds of a retest and breakout above the August high.
  • If the market trades lower, they hope that the bull trend line or the 20-week EMA will act as support.
  • The bears see the recent rally as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high (July).
  • They want a reversal from around the upper third of the large trading range from a double top bear flag (Dec 28 and Aug 23).
  • While the market traded lower this week, they were not able to get a strong bear bar. The bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be.
  • They hope to get another leg testing near the 20-week EMA.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a reversal from a double top with the August 23 high.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a bear doji closing in its upper half with a long tail below, it can be a buy signal bar albeit weaker.
  • If the market continues to stall above the 20-week EMA, we may see an attempt to retest the August 23 high in the coming weeks ahead.
  • Traders will see if the bull can create a strong entry bar closing near its high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and close with a long tail or a bear body instead?
  • The market trades around the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • The EURUSD is in a 95-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Wedge or Retest High?
  • The EURUSD traded lower in the first half of the week but reversed higher on Thursday. Friday traded higher but closed as a bull doji with a long tail above.
  • Last week, we said that the market may still be in the sideways to down pullback phase. Traders will see if the bears can create another leg down or if the market will trade slightly lower but stall around the 20-day EMA area.
  • So far, the market continues to trade around the 20-day EMA area.
  • Previously, the bulls created a tight bull channel testing the December high.
  • They see the current move as a two-legged pullback forming a double bottom bull flag (Sep 3 and Sep 11).
  • They want a retest of the August high, followed by a breakout with follow-through buying.
  • If the market trades lower, they want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (with the first two legs being Sep 3 and Sep 11).
  • The bulls want the 20-day EMA and the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears see the prior rally as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high.
  • They got a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Aug 5, Aug 14, and Aug 23) and a failed breakout above the December high from around the upper third of the large trading range.
  • They got another leg down this week, but the follow-through selling was limited.
  • They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Sep 3 and Sep 11) and another strong leg down completing the wedge pattern.
  • They must create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.
  • Since Friday was a bull doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above, it is not a strong buy signal bar for Monday. It can be a sell signal bar for Monday.
  • The market may trade slightly lower earlier in the week.
  • Traders will see if the bears can create another leg down, trading far below the 20-day EMA.
  • Or will the market trade slightly lower but stall around the September 3 or September 11 low area and reverse up?
  • If the bears get strong consecutive bear bars trading far below the 20-day EMA, that will increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.
  • If the market continues to stall around the 20-day EMA, that will increase the odds of another retest of the August 23 high.
  • The market is trading near the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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