Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bull trend bar with the exponential moving average (EMA) around its midpoint. It is a strong entry bar to weak buy signal bar of 8-9. Note – This should say week of 8-5 and is referring to the prior week.
On the daily chart, the market had a bull trend bar leading up to the EMAs, a pause bar around the EMAs, and then a bull trend bar above the EMA.
The monthly chart is a now a doji bar with a very long tail below. The market is at the top end of the bar. Given how big the month already is, it is unlikely the market will go a lot higher to extend the range on the top side. It is likely this month or the next will allow bulls that bought the close of the May month to exit break-even.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bull trend bar with the weekly EMA around its midpoint.
- Last week’s report had made a case for last week being a bear breakout pullback rather than a reversal buy signal bar, and there would likely be sellers above.
- Well, this week is a surprisingly strong entry bar. The sellers at last week’s high are now trapped. If they were risking 1X the size of last week’s bar, their stop will likely be hit. This means there will be a layer of support in the range between the close of last week, and the midpoint of the tail, if the market was to revisit it in the next month or two (shown with shaded green area).
- Bulls need a good follow-through bar next week. They have done enough to have a second leg up – possibly from the weekly EMA or the support area mentioned above.
- Bears will likely sell this week’s close as they do not want a follow-through bull bar. Bears who sold last week will sell more this week to try and exit breakeven.
- If next week is a bull bar with a tail below, it will be a sign of those bears exiting.
- Could this have been a bear trap? It was less likely because the market got far enough below EMAs and is in the first leg down. However, a big down, big up could mean sideways.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- This week had bull trend bars on two days interleaved with doji bars on other days.
- Monday was a doji follow-through to last Friday. Tuesday was a big bull bar that closed at the weekly EMA, and just above the daily EMA.
- Wednesday was a doji bar around Tuesday’s close. This was the bear’s best chance for a reversal. Instead, Thursday was a big bull bar opening at the EMAs and closing far above. Friday was a doji follow-through bar to Friday.
- The market is in a bull micro-channel since the big outside up reversal bar last Wednesday, which means likely two more legs up.
- It also looks like the market is in an expanding triangle (ET), so its possible the market goes all the way to the high of the ET.
- The chart also shows likely support areas below big bars with green shaded areas.
- The market has had a couple of closes above the resistance from the high close of 7/31. It is also near the broken support from low close of 6/24.
- Bears would like to take the market sideways around these resistance levels for the next couple of weeks like they did in March so they can then get a leg down.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
