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Nasdaq 100 Another Close above Prior Bar Low

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Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a non-climactic bull bar with small tails. Bears needed this week to close below last week’s low, but this is yet another close above prior bar low. The market triggered the sell signal bar of last week and closed as a High 1 (H1) bull reversal bar.

The July monthly bar so far is a bull bar with small tails. Monday is the last day of the month. Bulls want the close near the high of the month, while bears want a close below the mid-point or have as big a tail at the top as possible.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Weekly another close above prior bar low
  • The week is a non-climactic bull bar with small tails.
  • Last week, the bears had a good reversal bar. They needed this week to close below the reversal bar.
  • However, the market triggered the reversal bar and closed as a good H1 bull reversal bar.
  • The low of this week’s bar is testing the breakout point of the high of June.
  • Bears have been unable to close below the prior bar since early March. Their first target remains to have a close below the prior bar.
  • The next target for the bulls is –
    • The high close of 2021 – 16338.75
    • The all-time high in November 2021 at 16767.5

The Daily NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Daily pullback from 3 consecutive strong bear bars
  • Friday is a bull inside bar with a tail above.
  • Last week’s report had mentioned that there would likely be a second leg to the three bear bars of last week.
  • Monday was a doji bear bar near the low of last week with a tail below.
  • Tuesday was a good bull bar with a close above Monday.
  • Wednesday was a bull doji reversal bar from around Monday’s low.
  • Thursday gapped up and went high enough above the Wednesday bull reversal signal but ended up as a big outside down (OD) day.
  • Friday gapped up and closed as a bull buy signal bar near the high of Thursday.
  • Since Friday is a bull bar near the high of the outside down bear bar of Thursday, it is not a good buy signal bar.
  • There are likely more sellers here than buyers.
  • The Thursday OD bar came close to the daily exponential moving average (EMA) but did not touch it.
  • Was the Thursday big bear bar the 2nd leg down expected from the 1st leg last week? It’s not clear yet.
  • As mentioned above, bulls want a good buy signal. If Friday had ended up as a good buy signal bar near the low of Thursday, it would have been better than how Friday ended up – a buy signal bar near the high of a big bear bar.
  • Given all the above, it is likely there will be another leg down early next week, and bulls will try for a good reversal signal at the daily EMA.

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