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EURUSD Bulls Failed to Create Follow-through Buying Again

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The EURUSD Forex weekly candlestick was a bear reversal bar. The EURUSD bulls failed to create follow-through buying again, a recurring theme since 2021. The bears want a retest of the September low and another breakout attempt. The bulls hope that this is simply a retest of the low and want a reversal higher from a micro double bottom.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Bulls Failed to Create Follow-through Buying and Retest of Low Possible on Weekly Chart
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a bear reversal bar closing near the low with a long tail above.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bulls can get a follow-through bull bar, or fail to do so. If the bulls get a consecutive bull bar, it could be the start of a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback lasting at least a few weeks.
  • The EURUSD traded higher but reversed all the gains by Friday.
  • The bears want a strong breakout below the 2017 low, and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. This will take them to the year 2000 low.
  • The move down is in a tight bear channel. That means strong bears. 
  • While the recent breakout below the July-August low was strong, the bears failed to get follow-through selling.
  • The bears see this week as a breakout pullback and want at least a retest of Sept low.
  • The bulls hope that the recent 10-week trading range (July to Sept) is the final flag of the move. 
  • They want a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (May 13, July 14 and Sept 28) and a trend channel line overshoot.
  • However, the bulls kept failing to get sustained follow-through buying, a recurring theme since the selloff started in 2021. This was the case again this week.
  • The bulls will need to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs, breaking far above the bear trend line and 20-week exponential moving average, to convince traders that a larger sideways to up pullback may be underway.
  • If next week trades lower and retests Sept low, bulls want a reversal higher from a micro double bottom.
  • Since this week was a bear bar closing near the low, it is a sell signal bar for next week. 
  • For now, the odds slightly favor sideways to down.
  • Traders will be monitoring if the bears can get a strong follow-through bear bar retesting Sept low followed by a strong breakout, or fail to do so.
  • If next week tests near the Sept low, but reverses higher closing as a strong bull bar with a long tail below, the bulls will likely get another attempt at a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback lasting at least a few weeks.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EUSUD Daily Chart Lower High Retest Low Following Sell Climax
  • The EURUSD traded higher earlier in the week but failed above the 20-day exponential moving average and traded down for the rest of the week.
  • The bulls want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range.
  • They hope that the recent 10-week trading range pullback (July to Sept) is the final flag of the move down which started in February. 
  • The bulls want a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (May 13, July 14 and Sept 28) and trend channel line overshoot following a sell climax.
  • However, they have not been able to create sustained follow-through buying, a recurring theme since 2021.
  • The bulls see the current pullback simply as a retest of the September low and want a reversal higher from a double bottom.
  • The bulls will need to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to convince traders that a larger 2-legged sideways to up pullback lasting many weeks may be underway.
  • The bears want a continuation down and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. That would take them to the year 2000 low.
  • The bears want another leg lower retesting the Sept low followed by a strong breakout with follow-through selling. 
  • For now, odds slightly favor sideways to down to retest Sept low.
  • If the EURUSD retests near the Sept low, but fails and reverses higher again, we may see another attempt by the bulls to start a 2-legged sideways to up move lasting many weeks again.

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