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EURUSD Bear Leg

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The weekly chart is still in a EURUSD bear leg. The bears need to continue creating follow-through selling to increase the odds of a breakout below the bull trend line. The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 14). If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the bull trend line and a reversal from a double bottom with the April low.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: Bear Leg in Trading Range, EURUSD Bear Leg
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was an inside bear doji closing in its lower half.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to down phase but the market is trading near the lower third of the smaller trading range which can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The inside doji indicates the market traded sideways for the week.
  • The bears see the move up to June 4 simply as a deep pullback and want a small retest of the April 16 low (even if it forms a higher low).
  • They got a reversal from a wedge bear flag (Apr 26, May 3, and May 16), a double top bear flag (Apr 9 and May 16) and a small double top (May 16 and Jun 4).
  • They hope to get another leg down completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being February 14 and April 16. The third leg down is currently underway.
  • They see this week as a pullback and want another leg down to retest the April low next week.
  • The bears need to continue creating follow-through selling to increase the odds of a breakout below the bull trend line.
  • The bulls want the bull trend line to act as support.
  • They want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 14).
  • If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the bull trend line and a reversal from a double bottom with the April low.
  • Since this week is an inside bear doji, it is a neutral signal bar.
  • The bulls want a breakout above while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
  • For now, the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to down phase.
  • Traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling, or if the market may trade slightly lower but stall around the bull trend line area.
  • The EURUSD is trading near the lower third of the smaller trading range which can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The bull trend line can be a possible support area.
  • The EURUSD is in an 83-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until there is a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Bear Leg in Trading Range
  • The EURUSD traded higher in the week but retested the June 14 low by Friday.
  • Last week, we said that traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling and that the lower third of the smaller trading range can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The bulls see the current move simply as a deep pullback.
  • They want the market to stall around the current levels and form a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal and a wedge bull flag (Feb 14, Apr 16, and Jun 14).
  • They also see a smaller wedge in the current leg down (Jun 11, Jun 14, and Jun 21) and a small double bottom (Jun 14 and Jun 21).
  • If the market trades lower, they want the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears got a reversal from a wedge bear flag (Apr 26, May 3, and May 16) and a double top bear flag (Apr 9 and May 16).
  • They want another leg down completing the larger wedge pattern with the first two legs being February 14 and April 16.
  • At the least, they want a small retest of the April 16 low, even if it only forms a higher low. So far, this is the case.
  • The next target for the bears is the April 16 low.
  • If there is a pullback, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
  • For now, traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling.
  • The market is trading around the lower third of the smaller trading range which can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The bull trend line could also be a potential support area.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until there is a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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