Trading Update: Thursday February 29, 2024
End of day video review
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed an Inside bar yesterday after Tuesday’s weak High 1 buy signal bar.
- While this is disappointing for the bulls, the odds favor sideways to up trading, compared to a strong downside breakout.
- The bears are hopeful that they will be able to get a test down to the moving average. However, the follow-through selling ever since the February 23rd high has been disappointing. This will increase the odds of buying below as traders begin to buy.
- The bears are hopeful that there are sellers above the prior bar. Next, they want the daily chart to form a lower high below the February 23rd high, leading to a second leg down to the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 17 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Emini rallied during the morning report released at 8:30 AM EST.
- Today will gap up above yesterday’s high and trigger a high 1 buy signal.
- Because the gap up is large, the odds favor at least a small second leg up on the open. However, the market may have to go sideways first and test closer to the moving average.
- Because the gap up is large and closing above many bars to the left, there is an increased risk of a trend day. If the market is going to get a trend, it is more likely to be a bull trend due to the gap up.
- The gap up is large. That will increase the risk of the bulls being exhausted and the market needing to go sideways on the open.
- As I often say, most traders should wait for a reasonable stop entry before placing a trade. This is because a sideways open is more likely than a trend from the open.
- Traders should expect sideways trading for at least 6 bars. This is because the market often forms a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before a swing trade on the open.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a bad High 1 buy signal bar yesterday. The odds favored sellers above its high due to bulls likely using the bar to take profits above it and bears selling above for a scalp.
- The bears are hopeful that today will form a strong bear bar closing on its low. This would be a second entry sell and increase the odds of bulls selling out of longs below the bar.
- Because the market is in a trading range, it can have a deep pullback all the way back down to the February 14th high before bulls are interested in buying.
- Because the rally from February 14th is in a tight bull channel, most bears will be hesitant to sell without more selling pressure.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.