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Emini 2nd Leg Down to Moving Average Likely

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Trading Update: Monday July 1, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Last Friday, founder sellers went above the June high and reversed down, forming an outside down day. The odds favor a second leg down and test of the moving average over the next several days.
  • The bears are hopeful that last Friday is the start of a strong selloff. However, the odds are against today, forming a strong follow-through bar.
  • Outside bars are trading range bars, which increases the odds of buyers below last Friday’s low.
  • The bulls will try and create an inside bar today as an attempt at a failed breakout.
  • Last Friday’s outside down bar is strong enough that the odds favor a second leg down, even if the Bears get a brief pullback first.
  • The moving average is a logical target to reach, which is near 5,500, and the market will probably reach both sometime soon.
  • Traders should expect today to be a disappointing bar for the bears and not a strong bear trend bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Globex market has gone sideways for most of the overnight session and rallied recently.
  • The is going to gap up and try and test the midpoint of last Friday’s rally.
  • The bears will look to sell around that price level. Next, they will want a test down to last Friday’s low to trigger the sell on the daily chart.
  • Last Friday’s outside down day formed a large range, increasing the odds of sideways trading today. This means that today, an inside bar might be placed on the daily chart.
  • As always, traders should assume that the open will have a lot of trading range price action.
  • This means that traders should exercise caution if they plan on trading the opening range.
  • Most traders will be better off waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade.

Friday’s Emini setups

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD gapped up last night and reversed back down to last Friday’s high.
  • The daily chart is in a trading range, and the odds favored a test of the June 18th high.
  • The bears are hopeful that today will form a strong bear reversal bar in a broad bear channel which will lead to a break below the June low.
  • At the moment, the selloff today is strong enough for a second leg down. However, the market may get a deep pullback fist.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Wedge Bottom and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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