Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The weekly chart is in a persistent bull channel which could be the start of the Crude Oil bull leg to retest the trading range high. The bears will need to create sustained follow-through selling closing below the 20-week EMA but they have not yet been able to do so.
Crude oil futures
The Monthly crude oil chart
- The March monthly Crude Oil candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high and was a follow-through bull bar following last month’s close above the 20-month EMA.
- Last month, we said that the market is in a tight trading range with a slight slope up. Poor follow-through and reversals are the hallmarks of a trading range.
- Previously, the bears got a reversal from a double top bear flag with the November 2022 high and a lower high major trend reversal.
- They were not able to create follow-through selling below the 20-month EMA (Dec 13).
- They want a second leg sideways to down and a retest of the December low from a lower high major trend reversal (against Sept high).
- If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line to act as resistance.
- The bulls see the pullback (Sept to Dec) simply as a deep pullback and hope to get a retest of the September high.
- They got a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (December) and a double bottom bull flag (May 4 and Dec 13).
- They managed to create follow-through buying above the 20-month EMA (in March) which increases the odds of the bull leg beginning.
- Since March was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for April.
- Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
- Traders will see if the bulls can continue creating follow-through buying breaking above the bear trendline to retest the September high.
- The market is in a large trading range (Trading range high: September 29, Trading range low: May 4).
- Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bull bar closing near its high.
- Last week, we said that there may be an attempt to create a pullback lower. Until the bears can create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, odds favor any pullback to be minor and the bull channel to continue.
- The bears see the recent sideways to up pullback as forming a wedge bear flag (Dec 26, Jan 29, Mar 28). They also see an embedded wedge forming in the third leg up (Feb 14, Mar 3, and Mar 28).
- They want another leg down to retest the prior leg low (Dec 13).
- They will need to create sustained follow-through selling closing below the 20-week EMA. So far, they have not yet been able to do so.
- The bulls see the selloff to the December 13 low simply as a bear leg within a trading range.
- They got a weak bull channel with overlapping candlesticks trading above the 20-week EMA for weeks.
- While the move up has a lot of overlapping candlesticks, the bulls have created stronger buying pressure (bull bars closing near their highs) against weaker selling pressure (bear bars had no follow-through selling).
- If the market trades lower, the bulls want the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next.
- While the bears have a wedge pattern, they have not been able to create strong selling pressure with follow-through selling since the pullback started in December.
- For now, the odds slightly favor the market to remain in the bull channel.
- Until the bears can create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, odds favor any pullback to be minor and the bull channel to continue.
- The inability of the bears to create meaningful follow-through selling is slowly swinging the odds in favor of more sideways to up movements. This remains true.
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