Trading Update: Thursday August 8, 2024
End of day video review
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a Low 1 short yesterday, closing on its low.
- While the signal bar is great for the bears, the context is bad, and the odds favor buyers below it.
- The bears want trend continuation and another leg down after the selloff to the August low.
- However, the odds favor a rally because the Emini is at the 5,200-price level, which is important support.
- The Emini had a 10% correction down to the 5,100-price level. A 10% correction is significant and will always entice investors to buy due to the high time frames being in a bull trend. This increases the odds of a bounce, and the daily chart goes sideways up for a couple of legs.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini formed an opening reversal on bar 5 the market is in a small pullback bull trend up to bar 12.
- While the rally is forming a parabolic wedge, the odds favor any reversal we get, becoming minor and leading to trend resumption.
- The rally up to bar 12 is a strong breakout on a 15-minute chart, which increases the probability of higher prices.
- Today is likely to be either a bull trend or a trading range day.
- There is only a 20% chance of the small pullback bull trend lasting the entire day. There is an 80% chance of the small pullback rally forming a trading range at some point before the end of the day.
- Bears need to halt the buying pressure and get closes below the moving average. Without this, the best the bears can hope for is sideways.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is continuing to form bad follow-through after the recent upside breakout of the July high.
- The bulls are hopeful that the pullback over the past three days will lead to a second leg up.
- The Bears are hopeful that the rally up to the August high is a 2nd leg trap. Next, they will want a test down to August 1st, the bottom of the 2nd leg.
- The bulls will probably get an attempt at a second leg and a test of the August high.
- Because the market is in a trading range on the daily chart, traders should expect the EURUSD to continue to go sideways.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
