Trading Update: Thursday December 21, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini sold off yesterday and formed an outside down bar on the daily chart. This is likely due to momentum bulls taking profits.
- Yesterday is strong enough that the odds favor a second leg down, even if there is a pullback first.
- Yesterday’s close now traps the bulls long on the daily chart. These bulls are likely disappointed and eager to exit longs on any rally.
- Today has the potential to form a bull bar; this would create a high 1 buy setup and likely lead to a second leg down.
- The Bears will try to create follow-through selling today. They want to prevent a bull bar from forming.
- Overall, the daily chart has been overbought for some time and will likely test down to the moving average. Bulls are probably no longer interested in buying higher and will now look to buy lower, closer to the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 30 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market rallied during today’s 8:30 AM EST report.
- Traders should expect today’s open to have a lot of trading range price action.
- There is a 75% chance of a trading range open the lasting two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour.
- There is a 50% chance of follow-through selling on the open, followed by a trading range.
- Overall, traders should expect the open to go sideways. This means there is no rush to trade, and most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini went sideways for the first several hours on the open.
- The bears formed a downside breakout during bars 30 and 31. However, the follow-through has been weak.
- Today will probably become a trending trading range day and test back to the bar 9 and bar 22 lows.
- Because the open has had a lot of trading range price action, today is not likely to become a strong bear trend day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD pulled back yesterday and tested the December 18th high 1 buy signal bar.
- The odds were there would be buyers back at the December 18th high, and the bulls would get a small second leg up, which is what is happening today.
- The bears who sold the December 18th high were trapped on the following bar, and they likely used yesterday’s selloff to buy back shorts.
- Overall, the bulls are trying hard to get a second leg up and an upside breakout above the November high. The bears want the market to continue to stay in the two-month trading range and eventually test down to the December 11th high.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.