Posted 6:50 a.m. The Emini opened with a big gap down. Big up yesterday, big down today means big confusion and increases the chances of a trading range. The second and fourth bars were bear bars. This is bad follow-through after the strong bull bars, and that increases the chances of a trading range. Yesterday […]
Intraday market update, January 30, 2015:
Intraday market update, January 29, 2015:
Sell climax so a minor trend reversal is likely
Posted 7:37 a.m. There was some initial follow-through selling, but the bulls are still looking for a two hour rally. They do not yet have a credible bottom, nor do they have a bull breakout. They need a better bottom or a bull breakout. Otherwise, the bears might get a bear breakout below the tight […]
Intraday market update, January 28, 2015:
Breakout mode and there is an FOMC report
Posted 6:54 a.m. The Emini opened in a limit order market. Since the market is in the middle of a 3 week trading range, it is in breakout mode, and there is an FOMC report at 11 a.m. There was disappointing follow-through from the initial reversal down, and the reversal up has not been strong […]
Intraday market update, January 27, 2015:
Double top bear flag
Posted 6:57 a.m. The Emini opened with a big gap down, but had early trading range price action. This often is the start of a sideways to up move to get closer to the moving average. At that point, the Emini decides between an opening reversal down and a trend up. The downside is probably […]
Intraday market update, January 26, 2015:
Pullback before another breakout attempt
Posted 6:51 a.m. The Emini opened with the biggest bear trend bar of a 30 bar bear trend. This was more likely an exhaustion gap than a measuring gap. However, when the channel is as tight as it is, the first reversal up usually forms a trading range and not a trend reversal. The bulls […]
Weekly Forex update, January 24, 2015:
Sell climax and an exhaustion gap
Monthly Forex EURUSD candle chart: Strong bear breakout below head and shoulders bottom The monthly EURUSD Forex chart is in a strong breakout below a head and shoulders bottom. A failed bottom usually falls for at least two legs and it typically reaches a measured move projection. The monthly Forex EURUSD candle chart is breaking […]
Emini weekend update: January 24, 2015:
Double top and double bottom on the daily chart
Monthly S&P500 Emini candle chart: Strong bull trend, but overbought The monthly Emini candle chart is in a strong bull trend, but it is very overbought. The monthly S&P500 Emini candle chart is in a strong bull trend, but it is very overbought and probably will have a 20% correction at some point this year. […]
Intraday market update, January 23, 2015:
Buy climax that is testing resistance
Posted 7:06 a.m. The Emini opened with multiple reversals after yesterday’s buy climax. This is trading range behavior, which is typical after a buy climax. The rally yesterday was big enough so that there probably will be swing trades within the trading range, but at the moment, a trading range is most likely for the […]
Intraday market update, January 22, 2015:
Bull breakout of a wedge bear flag
Posted 6:45 a.m. The Emini broke above the top of the 5 day bull channel on the open. This is a wedge bear flag. It then reversed down, as expected. The bears are hoping for a bear trend day. The bulls would like the selloff to be a bear leg in a trading range. If […]
Intraday market update, January 21, 2015:
Breakout mode
Posted 7:15 a.m. The Emini opened with a strong opening reversal up from the 60 minute moving average. However, as expected in a trading range, the follow-through was bad and the market reversed down from its breakout above yesterday’s high. Even though the second bar of the day was a huge bull reversal, this bad […]