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July 2024 Monday 15 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday started with a Huge bull Trend from the Open where all the trapped bulls on daily chart where able to exit, after reaching new ATH the price drop with strenght leaving a big tail on the top.
After this events on Daily chart; Bull Climax, then huge Bear Bar and now trapped bulls being able to exit their longs I think that the market could start to do some sideways trading or drop down, the reason behind this is because a lot of bulls are taking profits here.
PP scenarios:
1.- TRD ( also Powell news later on day )might be sellers at HoY and buyers at LoY, probably bears want to create a good signal bar in order to sell but bulls want the opposite so it is possible that we will have a fight at those levels
2.- Bear BO after that 1st strong leg that we have yesterday at EoD and FT, but I dont think that would happen, same reason for Bull BO, I think we are in a important level and we need to fight a bit here in order to create a strong BO
Trades
TR Open after bar 3, you could argue that B6 High is a good buy H1 at EMA after GUP but for me that wasnt a clear entry even if it worked out.
1st blue arrow entry was a good buy but at the same time the RR is bad unless you use a tight stop below the gap and being honest I am not sure if that is good.
2nd trade was a good sell with good context and I like this entry more than the L1 after the big BO because bulls sowed up at EMA and created a strong bull bar so maybe they could try again a 2nd time in order to move the price up, for that reason I dont think that the L1 is a good entry even if the Bear BO was huge, I saw a lot of times Bull Trends with Huge Bear BO that reverse completly and I dont trust them ( maybe I am wrong with this ) Later we have the entry after H2 fail and close below EMA, the only bad thing about this trade again is the RR, the SL is way to far after that BO and the only way to improve the RR is using a Tight stop ( I am not sure if tight stops are good in this scenarios or not but I would love if someone can bring some light here, I am used to use Swing points as SL in order to protect my trade and not take early exits when my reading is good )
3rd trade its also a good trade in terms of context, TRD (big up + big down) + WB at LoD + 2nd entry and good bull bars closing High before the setup, maybe the only problem was that we were on a bear channel and below EMA but even with that it looked good for me.
After that trade I wasnt sure about the EoD, I thought today was a TRD but after the Bear BO below LoD I was thinking that bears could be aiming to CoY or even LoY so I wasnt able to take any trade after that Bull BO again, we had a lot of strong bars at EoD but I think its a risk that I dont want to be in.
Today was a good day but I wasnt able to to Swing it ( 2iR ) because of the RR, I dont know if there is something that I can do in order to fix this, maybe it is what it is, TRD are not so good for swings so 1iR setups with high prob are good enough
Have a nice day
July 2024 Monday 15 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a Huge bull Trend from the Open where all the trapped bulls on daily chart where able to exit, after reaching new ATH the price drop with strenght leaving a big tail on the top.
After those events, Bull Climax, then huge Bear Bar and now trapped bulls being able to exit their longs I think that the market could start to do some sideways trading or drop down, the reason behind this is because a lot of bulls are taking profits here.
PP scenarios:
Yesterday started with a Huge bull Trend from the Open where all the trapped bulls on daily chart where able to exit, after reaching new ATH the price drop with strenght leaving a big tail on the top.
Afther this events on Daily chart; Bull Climax, then huge Bear Bar and now trapped bulls being able to exit their longs I think that the market could start to do some sideways trading or drop down, the reason behind this is because a lot of bulls are taking profits here.
1.- TRD ( also Powell news later on day )might be sellers at HoY and buyers at LoY, probably bears want to create a good signal bar in order to sell but bulls want the opposite so it is possible that we will have a fight at those levels
2.- Bear BO after that 1st strong leg that we have yesterday at EoD and FT, but I dont think that would happen, same reason for Bull BO, I think we are in a important level and we need to fight a bit here in order to create a strong BO
Trades
TR Open after bar 3, you could argue that B6 High is a good buy H1 at EMA after GUP but for me that wasnt a clear entry even if it worked out.
1st blue arrow entry was a good buy but at the same time the RR is bad unless you use a tight stop below the gap and being honest I am not sure if that is good.
2nd trade was a good sell with good context and I like this entry more than the L1 after the big BO because bulls showed up at EMA and created a strong bull bar so maybe they could try again a 2nd time in order to move the price up, for that reason I dont think that the L1 is a good entry even if the Bear BO was huge, I saw a lot of times Bull Trends with Huge Bear BO that reverse completly and I dont trust them ( maybe I am wrong with this ) Later we have the entry after H2 fail and close below EMA, the only bad thing about this trade again is the RR, the SL is way to far after that BO and the only way to improve the RR is using a Tight stop ( I am not sure if tight stops are good in this scenarios or not but I would love if someone can bring some light here, I am used to use Swing points as SL in order to protect my trade and not take early exits when my reading is good )
3rd trade its also a good trade in terms of context, TRD (big up + big down) + WB at LoD + 2nd entry and good bull bars closing High before the setup, maybe the only problem was that we were on a bear channel and below EMA but even with that it looked good for me.
After that trade I wasnt sure about the EoD, I thought today was a TRD but after the Bear BO below LoD I was thinking that bears could be aiming to CoY or even LoY so I wasnt able to take any trade after that Bull BO again, we had a lot of strong bars at EoD but I think its a risk that I dont want to be in.
Today was a good day but I wasnt able to to Swing it ( 2iR ) because of the RR, I dont know if there is something that I can do in order to fix this, maybe it is what it is, TRD are not so good for swings so 1iR setups with high prob are good enough
Have a nice day
July 2024 Tuesday 16 ( 5min MES futures )
I want to show you the Daily (RTH) chart first in order to have some context
The last bar is today’s PA so at the Open we couldnt see it, being the bear doji the last bar at the moment of the NY Open.
As you can see we are in TR so I was expecting TR PA for today, sellers at HoY and buyers at LoY. Todays OoD was right at the middle of Yesterday’s PA and also we had TR open with 6 overlaped bars, the TRD was indeed something to keep in mind. The day ended as a small bull bar even if the whole day as a TR.
Today was a little bit wierd for me because I couldnt see any good swing, so no trades, I saw a bunch of 1iR scenarios but nothing for 2iR, also a lot of signal bars were really bad which is common on TRD. I dont know if I should trade this days with BLSHS mentallity and aim for 1iR or stick with the swing rules and forget everythin that it is not 2iR or more, I feel bad when I dont take a trade that I see that could have a profit in there but at the same time I know that If I let myself to take scalps I will start taking a lot of them, and as you know, I am not a good trader yet, so it is possible that I will make more mistakes.
On Trades chart I am going to show you the scalp entries that I thought were worth it, because as I said before I couldnt find any good 2iR trade.
Trades
Theres a few more scalps later on the day but, what I am trying to say is that every single trade has good reasons for every one ( bears and bulls ) to take it, so I wasnt able to take a side, I dont want to take those trades because my account is small and I dont want to scale in (when you win you win really small and when you lose its a big hit, so I think I am better leaving that path alone)
I would love to know if someone who is profitable doing Swing trades can give me some tips here, If my analisis is good or if it is not, if it is good to leave those TRD and do nothing or if it is a way to win something out of them, is it worth the risk or it is better to stay with the Swing mentallity and avoid everything related to scalp/scale in in order to reach profitability.
See you.
July 2024 Wednesday 17 ( 5min MES futures )
As you know we were on TR on HTF an todays NY session started with Huge gap down, I thought we were on TR and this open was a reason to believe it, yesterday was a bull bar closing on Highs so to day could be a Bear bar in order to have that 2 days reversal that we use to have on TR.
I am not good trading with huge gaps, but there is some setups that I have in mind in order to take trades.
1.- 2nd entry FBO LoY and fill gap, 50% gap or reach Loy
2.- PB to EMA in form of DT, TR or Wedge and Trend Resumption
3.- TRD
Even if I think those scenarios are possible I am completly froze after big gap open because I dont think that the market could go much lower and keep the EU Trend, but I dont want to buy either so…I think you can see why I am not profitable after all this analisis, even if I know some BPA I am not able to use it, I see setups everywhere and reasons to take and not take a trade at the same time and that makes me hesitate and dont pull the trigger, and if I do I exit as soon as I have some PB, sometimes even in the entry bar which its a same.
Trades
There are a few more entries after that las buy ( loss ) but I couldnt see anyone with 2iR, everything looked like TR
One more time theres no profits for me today;
1.- I couldnt take the first trade because I didnt like the way the setup was formed
2.- I couldnt take the 2nd trade because I was aware of the possible WT to EMA
3.- I took the 3rd trade, Reversal but I exit almost BE after L1 PB 50%
4.- I was so hype about the reversal that I couldnt take the 4th trade, I only exit my longs but I didnt sell because I thought we could have more buyers at the lows after those 2 bull bars
5.- As you can see even if today was a bear day I was so eager to buy because I see the gap as something that must be filled and that is really bad.. I took the 5th trade expecting that reversal up and I took the loss
It seems like I am able to spot the BPA setups but I cant take them, I dont know when the bull case is over the bear case or viceversa, and I am constantly looking for reasons why someone should take or exit their positions making me unsure about why should I hold when I can see setups for the opposite force against me.
I have also tested things like exit below strong bear bar and get in again if strong bull bar but I have even more losers doing that ( if you are in longs and theres a bear bar and you exit but then buy again, now I have a loss and a worst entry point. That happened to me a lot of times and that is the main reason why I try to not manage my trades unless theres a reason that makes me want to be trading in the other position, but as you can see I have always reasons for both sides and I cant see which is the strongest)
July 2024 Thursday 18 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a channel down TR but also was a Huge bear trend day CoL ( big gap on EU ) so we could have this PP scenarios:
1.- Reversal Up at LoY and keep with the TR
2.- Bear BO with FT on LoY ( notice that almost all the trend days try to create the wick early on the day )
Trades
I am going to point the trades in order and comment a little bit about them if needed, each number represent that trade ( always following the order )
1.- I didnt take the trade, even if there are reasons to take it I was also concern about the fact that we were in AIL after bars 6,7,8, also we have open gap, and important magnets like GXH and EMA 20 (1h TF) were really close, so I thought that the price could go a little bit higger in order to test those levels before droping.
2.- I couldnt take this trade either ( but now was because my account is really small and the SL “Swing High” was huge, I cant afford that risk in one trade ) Even if the L1 looked good I thought that the 2 Bull reversal bars were strong enough to maybe have a 2nd leg so I didnt wanted to take the trade an use the SL above the L1 Signal because the price could reach it before going down again.
It seems like I am a master on being trapped out of trades
I dont use to trade late on the session, even if I do it sometimes, but I want to say what I think about this trades too even If I wasnt there. ( I want to sharemy point of view in order to show you how I see the chart so you can help me to improve )
3.- I think this is a good trade but you shouldnt aim for a huge trend after this incredible bear day, this is a minor reversal trade but with really good context and EMA TG was almost at 2iR, I would be quick to exit if I see something wrong, as you know minor reversals are not the best setups to swing xD but this one had a good RR
4.- This trade had really good points and really good context after the 50% PB of the leg and retest of LLW, I think that is one of the trades where you can use the Signal bar or the bar before as SL
Now I am going to show you the 1h TF in order to show the HTF MM, I hope you can find them usefull:
July 2024 Friday 19 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a Huge Bear Trend day and I thought that we could have:
1.- TR
2.- Little bit more Down but then TR
Being honest I wasnt expecting 3 strong bear days but it is what it is, today is Friday and bears where looking for a strong bear bar on weekly chart.
Trades
1.- It is true that we were on a triangle BO pattern, but for me, even if the first bar is lower than the rest, when we have a lot of TTR bars I use to “forget” that bar1 and focus on the actual TTR. For me all that PA was BLSHS and every trend bar was faded, so I cant see that as a Stop Sell
2.- This is a good trade, I think that placing the SL above the SB is better in this scenario, I dont want to be in the trade if the price breaks that point and also we can have a better RR in order to reach that MM
3.- I dont like this kind of Wedges, even if they can lead to good profits, we were on Bear CH with Gaps, and every reversal have more chances to be minor
4.- The price never reached the Swing LH so we were still in AIS, we had our first EMA Gap so it is high chance to have a last push down in order to retest the lows before transition in TR or Reversal, I thought that selling the bar before this one was risky even if MDT because we were still above EMA, after the BO the % of succes is higher but the RR is worse, so it is up to you to take ir not
5.-Good trade and context but late in the day, also Friday, so anything could happen
Thoughts—> I am having problems taking the first Swing, a lot of times the price start the Swing without taking any mayor swing point or L/HoY, other bunch of times, the price comes close to those levels and then reverse to start the swing to the other side and I miss that too. I need to improve this opening swing because I cant take any trade before any of those levels are taken and that is trapping me out of many good swings, I have to study more and see what I can do in order to spot that first Swing.
Hi Alejandro,
Good Journal Keep it up! 👌
A couple of notes here on 18th and Yesterday:
I couldnt take this trade either ( but now was because my account is really small and the SL “Swing High” was huge, I cant afford that risk in one trade )
The stop doesn't necessarily go way up to the swing high, it can go above the BO bar (13) or even above the 50% level of the BO bar (lower probability) because the price should not get there if the Successful BO LoY + 2nd Leg Down TG premise is really valid.
moreover, I personally enter with a limit order on L1 setups after BO, in that case, I have a better RR.
If the BO looks really strong and you did not take the first reversal entry then you must look for ways to enter (preferably on a PB). even can use a money management stop and just enter.
I am having problems taking the first Swing, a lot of times the price start the Swing without taking any mayor swing point or L/HoY, other bunch of times, the price comes close to those levels and then reverse to start the swing to the other side and I miss that too.
price does not necessarily need to take a "major swing point" to start a move (but usually does)
it can also be a "minor swing high/low" or just a high in the pre-market GX chart.
So how to enter? like I've written in my journal about a concept called "Structure" reason, this can be an "Entry" Reason (like taking out the major swing points such as LoY) BUT
It can also be a "Target" Reason. That means you have a "Major Swing Point" as a target and that's already a structural reason. then you'll just find ANY BPA pattern such as wedge or HH DT etc and enter on a good signal or enter on a PB after BO.
And yesterday was a nice example: LoY EQL TG is such a nice high-probability target. I've taken this trade yesterday.
One more point: do not approach it mechanically or systematically. the market doesn't work like that it renews itself every second it can never ever be formulated in a mechanical way.
that said, try to understand the concepts in my journal, don't caught in terms or methods.
Structure is all about understanding the narrative like what's the story? where we are? where is the target?(where the price is going to go) and I don't even ask these questions while trading (again is not a checklist or something) , I just read the story, like what is going on, what is the price doing.
without successful tape reading, there can be no success in trading, regardless of how mechanical one's setups are, or how useful the checklist he uses. you have to just read it.
and this takes time, and it needs you to constantly think about the market, every day and the approach will gradually become more and more efficient/rich.
I hope this helps
Hi Ali
Thank you a lot for your words, I have a few questions:
The stop doesn't necessarily go way up to the swing high, it can go above the BO bar (13) or even above the 50% level of the BO bar (lower probability) because the price should not get there if the Successful BO LoY + 2nd Leg Down TG premise is really valid.
I will try to use that method with SL above BO, I am using the swing H/L because I "fear" to lose the trade so I think I use that point in order to feel safe"?" but it is true that If the price reverse the BO theres a lot of possibilities that the price will go higher, so theres no point in having more risk than needed, even if some times may work.
The other question is about the 50%, for those cases do you use the 50% of the BO bar only, not the whole BO right (for example in a 2-3 bar BO do you use the 50% of those 3 bars all together or the 50% of the first strong BO?
it can also be a "minor swing high/low" or just a high in the pre-market GX chart.
Thats helpfull, I was using only RTH this days so I couldnt see anything more than GXH/L, maybe it is worth to have the 15min ETH chart open in order to see those levels ( I think Al also have that 15m ETH chart )
It can also be a "Target" Reason. That means you have a "Major Swing Point" as a target and that's already a structural reason. then you'll just find ANY BPA pattern such as wedge or HH DT etc and enter on a good signal or enter on a PB after BO.
This is also interesting, if I see a good target wait for a setup that points that target instead of wait for a S/R level to be taken first, as long as the setup is good.
One more point: do not approach it mechanically or systematically.
Yep.. your right here, I think that I have problems with this because that is the way I think in general. I am always looking for reasons, why things happen and what triggers them, so maybe my way of thinking tends to search for patterns in trading, I need to give them some room and dont be so inflexible with them.
without successful tape reading, there can be no success in trading, regardless of how mechanical one's setups are, or how useful the checklist he uses. you have to just read it.
and this takes time, and it needs you to constantly think about the market, every day and the approach will gradually become more and more efficient/rich.
I am working on it, one of my problems is that even if I see a good (bull) setup I get frozen if I see any reasons for (bear) to take the opposite. I need to work on this, see which setup has better chances to win and take the trade, the PA is always on that gray fog and I need to move forward.
Thank you a lot for the help Ali.
I will try to use that method with SL above BO, I am using the swing H/L because I "fear" to lose the trade so I think I use that point in order to feel safe"?
There are 'signal bars' through each day that generate 2R easily based on the stop above them (so 2x their sizes) and those are 'Blue Box Entries' if you train yourself on that you'll build confidence on tighter (but still reasonable) stops. but again that's something personal, you should find out what works for you.
The other question is about the 50%, for those cases do you use the 50% of the BO bar only, not the whole BO right (for example in a 2-3 bar BO do you use the 50% of those 3 bars all together or the 50% of the first strong BO?
50% of the whole leg or 50% from where the BO began (bar 12 on 18th) to the bottom of the leg. test it by yourself
maybe it is worth to have the 15min ETH chart open in order to see those levels
for the first 30min/1H, yes OK to watch the ETH chart.
This is also interesting, if I see a good target wait for a setup that points that target instead of wait for a S/R level to be taken first, as long as the setup is good.
you don't know which one will you use, the market will tell you. if there is an obvious target you have to get in with a good setup.
other times there is no obvious target, then you'll wait for a HTF FBO Level (HoY/LoY/EQH/EQL etc) all needs experience. if you have both clean SR level and TG Level with a good reversal pattern on SR that's gonna be an A++ Setup.
you're welcome! Glad to help : )
July 2024 Monday 22 ( 5min MES futures )
We had 3 strong bear days in a row, reaching EMA on daily chart, last 2 days were a Bear CH and thats important:
1.- TR between LoY and Start of Bear Channel
2.- More Bear BO ( low probability but possible )
3.- Strong reversal Up, maybe from LoY to HoY but after 3 strong bear bars on daily I think we will have LMT sellers at HoY
Trades:
1.- I was looking for a good SB in order to take the WT but we had a bad SB ( huge tail at the bottom ) also 5 bars MCH up so I didnt take the wedge. Then we had the BO and I was praying in order to have a PB so I could sell but we never had that PB and the Risk from that bar was bigger than the ammount that I let myself to take a trade so I missed that trade.
2.- Thats a good setup for bulls, but after that strong spike down I was expecting a second leg down in order to reach ORange MM or GXL CoY so I didnt take the trade, If I was holding a short I would exit above that bull bar.
3.- Similar scenario as trade 1, I was looking for good SB and we got the BO, in this case we had a PB in order to sell again the L1 but I wasnt confortable selling that because at that point we were on a TR, also 50% of the Range and I dont want to take trades at the middle of the range, we could go High to 50%PB of whole bear leg or Top of the daily bear channel which was a little bit higher than HoD, or we could go lower and fill the gap. Both scenarios were possible so I think taking a trade at 50% of that Range isnt the best bet.
4.-I cant say much about this one, I think it is a really good bet, even if OoD isnt a 2iR
Thoughts:
I am having a lot of problems with signal bars on 5min because they take too long to form, and a lot of times we are in a key level, the bar close with bad signal bar and then we have to wait another 5 minuts in order to see the next bar and I lose a lot of trades because of this ( like the two short trades ) also I am trading Micro E mini futures and I dont want to risk more than 50$ per trade ( I have small account 2000$ prop firms) and theres a lot of times when the signal bar risk is higher than 50$ so I cant take the trade even if the setup is good, I was wondering if it is good to change my TF to 3min since I saw the setups still works and the risk is less, this way I could take more trades. I used to trade only 2 to 3 hours since the open and the setups on the open happens way faster than the setups on other times of the day, so it is easier to see the “wedges, DT/DB, PB, etc” on this TF, I did my research and I think it could be good for me but I am not sure if I am doing the right thing or not by thinking on it.
Anyone here trades another TF? do you use the same PA rules? Opening Gap PB to EMA works the same on other TF? Signals works the same?
July 2024 Tuesday 23 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a TRD that ended as a bull reversal bar, we had a strong move down this past days and this is the 1st attemp to reverse after daily closed below EMA 20. Yesterday High is going to be an important level since we could have a strong reversal up from EMA or a lot of LMT bears who wants to join the strong bear leg.
1.- FBO at HoY and test Low of bear leg on daily
2.- Bull BO at HoY and reach that 50% PB or even more
3.- TRD
Trades:
1.- This is the only trade that I like, it could be hard to take because we had 3 bear bars vs 8 bull bars but the context and the setup is good. A lot of overlap in that wedge
2.- I dont like this setup because I thought bears would have a 2nd leg, in fact I was pretty sure about bears taking LoD but they didnt. After that strong bear BO with big bars and 7 bars MCH I wasnt expected that a DB + MDB would lead to that kind of reversal when bears couldnt even get the LoD and they havent a single chance to create a 2nd leg. Maybe the 2nd leg was after that inside bar at EMA, but I am not sure about it, I like to see the legs and this looks like a single BO
After those 2 trades you could take a few more but I wasnt sure about any of those. I see the white arrow as a reason to exit longs but not a reason to sell after that strong bull leg, then all the bars have big tails on bottom and holding at EMA so they are not good Stop Order Sells, even with that we got a huge bear BO and a channel down or TTR, you could argue and say buy after that nested wedge + DB and BO above EMA, but we were on a TTR in a TRD and the price is at 50% of the days range so for me it is better to do nothing
Thoughts—> I am never “sure” with V reversals or with any reversal setup after strong MCH BO, I feel way safer if I wait for a 2nd entry instead of taking the first entry even if it is a DT/DB, I know that DT and DB are some kind of H/L2 but at the same time I dont feel good taking the first reversal attemp, what do you guys think about those kind of scenarios where the price drops with strenght but we have a DB or MDB with Strong SB? It is okay for you to take them? because I am always thinking that trapped out traders could be waiting for that PB in order to join the trend.
Thats all, have a nice day
July 2024 Wednesday 24 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a TRD but ended as a good bear bar for daily bears. This is important because this could be a really good L1 signal after the PB to reach good targets on HTF.
1.- BO down
2.- Reach Low of bear leg 1 and reverse there. But that point was already reached on GX and we keep going down on the NY open so the chances for Bear BO were bigger imo.
Trades:
1.- I am not good taking Trend from open trades because I am always fearfull of reversals ( I am always thinking “we are way to low and away from EMA, the price should go up at some point”)
If you dont take that trade you can sell for any reason in days like today, I cant see any good bull setup, even the WB with good signal bar was faded and after that theres no signs of strong bulls anywere so the selling pressure was still there.
I am going to show some HTF magnets that can be usefull.
This data is RTH data, but we reached those targets on the overnight session.
Thoughts —> I dont like to take Trend from the open trades because the price can reverse pretty fast and the risk is huge, I am okay missing this trades ( they dont happen pretty often either so I think I am fine with it, maybe in the future I will be able to take them, but for the moment I dont trust to much on trends from the open ).
With this kind of days I am always thinking on reversals, “ the price cant go much lower, we need a PB, this is way too climatic…etc” but the truth is that the best thing that I can do is forget about what I want and trade what it is. I should have sold the market and exit only if strong bull reversal / setup, but as long as that is not there, I should hold and stop thinking about what could happen and focus on what is happening. I am better trader than few months ago because atleast I am no longer the kind of guy who limit buy the market at MM targets because “the market HAVE to reverse here” thanks to that I am not losing money, but now I need to improve in taking the trend trade. No matter how strong do you think the trend is, it can go even lower and it is okay to sell if the trend is strong, if after your entry reversed you will probably be able to exit BE, and if not you have the reversal you “wanted”.
I am still to fearfull on taking trades because I dont want to lose ( even if I am trading smallest possible ) my problem is dealing with being wrong, I think that I am starting to break that wall litlle by little, atleast I am not that Fomo trader that I was ( even if I have some demons from time to time ) but I am working on it, I am sure that some day I will be able to take the trades and be okay with it, the only way to win is by assuming that you need to lose some in order to win, I know the theory but my brain is still processing it and for some reason, is still fighting that idea.
The profession of trader is really difficult, but it is also nice to see how thanks to it we are able to know some of our deepest emotions, I tell you this although I am the first one who does not achieve it many times, try to do the right thing and be comfortable when things do not go well, you are not a failure if you are not profitable, you just need to keep walking this path as long as you are aware that you are going to fall again and again until you reach the goal you are looking for, we all know what we have to do and what we can not allow under any circumstances, the fight is to do what we know at a theoretical level and not get carried away by those “demons” that seem to take control of our reasoning when we are in front of the charts.
Be compassionate with yourself we will reach there some day!
July 2024 Thursday 25 ( 5min MES futures )
Yesterday was a strong bear Trend day (channel), after this kind of days is really odd to have another strong bear trend, but it is common to have some trend resumption + TR or just TR, so those are things to keep in mind, also yesterday closed near its low so LoY is going to be a magnet.
1.- Trend resumption + TR
2.- TR
3.- Strong reversal up
Having this in mind LoY is going to be a good place to spot any setup in order to join todays PA.
Trades:
1.- I think it is a good setup but if you take it you have to be aware that triangle BO can fail 50% of times and that would mean FBO of triangle + 2nd entry long FBO LoY, so be ready to exit or even reverse if things go wrong
2.- You can take the first bar ( lower prob ) or the second ( higher prob, big risk ). I have a lot of problems with this kind of setups and I am going to explain why. If you read context and you are able to completly forget about GX and take this RTH chart as the only real thing, this bear BO came after triangle FF, BO late on Trend and also broke the channel down, this could mean exhaustion and that reversal bar is a really good signal in order to buy. But at the same time if you think ETH chart have meaning, that is not a Bear BO of a bear Channel anymore, also if you focus on todays PA this is a really good and strong BO and that little doji is not a reason to reverse that huge bear strength, even after the bull BO bar you are at 50% PB, the gap is not closed yet and bears deserve a 2nd leg down, so I am not sure about this trades because I dont know how to read the context, yesterday PA RTH or ETH, todays PA have meaning on its own or it dosnt?…Anyway if we focus on todays PA we have the following:
bears:
triangle BO ( apex use to get tested )
1st Strong BO of the day
3CC bear bars STC
Strong Reversal up but 50% PB and Gap still up, only 1 Leg down
bulls:
2nd entry long FBO LoY
Signal bar closing on High but doji against huge bear strength
Good Bull BO bar but 50% PB and Gaps
Bears only have 1 leg but it is the open so strong reversal can happen out of nowhere
3.- I think this is a really good trade but the day looks way to bullish so it is important to be aware of EMA which its also at the same level of some lows and could create a DB PB to EMA
4.- We have reasons to make the buy but it is really scary to take those trades after this kind of day
5.- As I said on the image, it is a PB at EMA with strong SB, so it is a good sell by itself, but bulls were way to strong in order to reach that level, so we dont know if they are going to have a 2nd leg up or they just went that hight so fast in order to exit if they were trapped buying the past bull bar at that exact hight.
Thoughts —> I know you guys and the course always said focus on one chart, is all that you need, choose RTH or ETH, but its really wierd for me, it is like makes no sense in my head, RTH have really good setups and looks clean but at the same time the pre market PA or GX PA means something, it is not like that PA dosnt exist or makes no sense, so why we shouldnt read that PA too in order to see what is happening at the open? I also know that a lot of people reads ETH chart in order to trade the open but if that is the case why the PA looks good for the open using ETH but at the same time you can find a wedge bottom for example using RTH at the open and works perfectly fine or yesterday channels phase aligns perfectly with todays channel phase on RTH but if you use ETH theres no conection between them…
I am sorry for saying this things, I know a lot of you find this kind of thoughts childish or that I am just mad because I am not able to trade it correctly and I am trying to make excuses or something like that, that I am overthinking and the only thing that I need to do is work with one of them and forget about the other. But being honest this is really hard for me, I need to understand something in order to believe it and I dont get why this disonance between RTH and ETH makes any sense.
I am really sorry if this bother any of you, but for me it is something that I cant get out of my head even if I try.
If someone have a point of view about this I would love to hear it, as long as you are respectfull I am okay hearing anything that you have to say.
Have a good day!
Hi Alejandro
sometimes if there's no a clear explanation for a sudden move it could be that the reason comes from a higher timeframes. Yesterday it could have been the touch on the trendline to cause some profit taking from the bears, hence the bounce. There are many forces at play and it's hard to keep an eye on all of them so we can just accept that anything can happen, and that a little doji can sometimes reverse 3 strong bear bars.
both eth and rth
I have been thinking and I believe that everything I have said about my thoughts in the previous post, are nothing more than excuses I make for myself in order to not take a trade and save myself from the fear of being wrong.
It is true that I like RTH more than ETH because everything looks cleaner, and I think that the gaps, as well as the PB 50%, or the HoY LoY are areas that always have some kind of resistance or strength. I also think that the ETH is important, because there are very strong movements that occur in it, and whether you want it or not, if the price reached a resistance zone in GX does not have to go again in NY and this is something that happens more than once, after all, the people who make Swings in HTF I would say that they does not make distinctions of openings, they just look at whether the price reached or not to their targets. they dont care if the price reached that level on RTH or ETH, I also believe that many patterns that are not completed in RTH when the day ends, end up being completed in ETH many times.
That said I think both make sense in their own way, and I don't think it is a good option to trade the openings waiting to have two correct setups on both charts pointing to the same direction, this is something that I dont do but it always have an eco in my head, I guess the answer is what I have always had in front of me and didn't want to accept, it is best to focus on one and forget about the other, sometimes one will be clearer than the other, but there is no rule of thumb that puts one chart above the other either.
