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What made today's bar 49 so fierce?
I can see the failed BO above the spike and wedge channel (bar 8-37), and the relatively strong bear leg that followed (38-41), announcing a possible MTR. But we were in a strong bull trend, 20+ bars above the MA, pretty tight bull channel. Also bull leg 45-48 looked strong enough for the market to at least stay in the upper TR. Why were the bars suddenly so urgent at 49?
Powell speaking is why it happened.
I have a policy of not trading the ES on days of FOMC press conference, FOMC minutes release, or when the Fed Chair speaks. I have found these days to be somewhat harmful to my account balance.
Powell spoke 3,5 hour earlier. That was probably why bar 7 got so big. But around bar 49 I cannot find any important events.
On these days I've found that the market can move abruptly at random points in time using the Fed activity that day as an excuse.
Hm, interesting. I'll keep an eye on that. Do you trade something else on those days, if I may ask?
Hi Casper,
I didn't see any news scheduled at the time of the big bars. By the way, in general, regarding stoplosses in overextended tight trends that risk a deep PB, Al recommends BLE4 or BLE8 depending on volatility.
ble4: Bulls can Exit about 4 ticks or half an average bar range below any bar, or 1 tick below bear bar closing below its midpoint if concerned about risk. Can always buy again above next bull bar closing near its high.
I would expect a lot of bulls to be exiting/taking profits on the way back up after those cc bears earlier ended the SPBL, if they didn't BLE4 already.
There's also a 70% chance that after 20GB buying at EMA the market would reach prior HOD and profit takers would come in. Here they came in a little earlier. But either way the market looked to have been converting into a TR by that time.
Cheers,
CH
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Access all BPA definitions at BPA Telegram Group using /def command with our bot.
Hm, interesting. I'll keep an eye on that. Do you trade something else on those days, if I may ask?
I'm currently in the process of researching and selecting a commodities market to trade on those days.
Hi Casper,
I didn't see any news scheduled at the time of the big bars. By the way, in general, regarding stoplosses in overextended tight trends that risk a deep PB, Al recommends BLE4 or BLE8 depending on volatility.
ble4: Bulls can Exit about 4 ticks or half an average bar range below any bar, or 1 tick below bear bar closing below its midpoint if concerned about risk. Can always buy again above next bull bar closing near its high.
I would expect a lot of bulls to be exiting/taking profits on the way back up after those cc bears earlier ended the SPBL, if they didn't BLE4 already.
There's also a 70% chance that after 20GB buying at EMA the market would reach prior HOD and profit takers would come in. Here they came in a little earlier. But either way the market looked to have been converting into a TR by that time.
Cheers,
CH
-------------------------
Access all BPA definitions at BPA Telegram Group using /def command with our bot.
Thank you. I had to look up most abbreviations, but I couldn't find cc. What do you mean by cc bears?
New York Community Bancorp needed 1 Billion dollars.....was halted and reopened a few times.
Apologies, we are used to using BPA abbreviations throughout the day in chat for faster analysis.
cc: consecutive
