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I recently finished reading "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" by Al along with the BTC. I do have a question when it comes to managing the "best trades". Wether it's in BO mode, MM, second entries at new high/lows, pullbacks in strong trend, or a MTR; Is it still plausible to take a 2 point profit in the E-mini and swing the rest with a breakeven stop (or until the trader decides the trade is no longer valid)? I understand the book is old and the prices of the Emini then aren't what it is now. Would taking a two point profit and swinging half of your position with a breakeven stop (or until trade is not "valid") still fall under a good trader's equation? If not, why?
Thank you for your time,
Wannabe Trader
Is it still plausible to take a 2 point profit in the E-mini and swing the rest with a breakeven stop (or until the trader decides the trade is no longer valid)?
Not really, with the current size of the bars, a BE stop will almost for sure be touched after the MKT has reached your 2p scalp target. At least, you should exit with 5 when the bar's size is 10p.
Would taking a two point profit and swinging half of your position with a breakeven stop (or until trade is not "valid") still fall under a good trader's equation?
With 5-15 points tall bars (sometimes 20 or 30!), if you exit with 2p but you lose 5, let alone 10 or more, you need to have an unrealistic winning porcentage. If your exit your scalp portion with less than one time your risk, your trader's equation will be always bad.
And, for the swing part with a BE stop, which is only 2p away from the price once it reaches the profit target, the probability that the MKT will come back and stop you out BE is very very high. So you would be risking, say, 20 points (10p x 2 contracts) to make most of the times 2 points. But this "most of the time" should be more than 90% to make this profitable...
Thank you! Now that I am looking back at some of the charts I think I was looking for an easy way to make a profit in the market, when the reality is opposite. I think what Al meant by only 2 points a day is to show that it is possible to make a nice living if you increase your volume and consistently make a couple points a day.
these days my smallest scalp trade is on avg 4 points.
Yesterday after FOMC a "small trade" got me 15 points.
so you need to read everything well based on the current volatility in the markets and adjust accordingly.
I think what Al meant by only 2 points a day is to show that it is possible to make a nice living if you increase your volume and consistently make a couple points a day.
When he wrote that the average size of the bars was 2p but, nowadays, it is in the range 5-10 so we should increase the scalp target accordingly.
I think I am just all together trying to avoid pain after being on a winning streak. I am scared of busting another account but can I get some advice on how to stick to the game plan. In specific, paying attention to follow-through. In the course Al emphasizes how important follow through is to traders. Lately, whenever I enter a trade and if there's a pullback or a test of the ema in the opposite direction, I immediately get out because in my head that's not good follow through, just to watch the market go back to the original direction of my trade. I know everything is in a grey fog and we don't know what exactly is going to happen next. I always follow my protective stops but sometimes when I feel a trade isn't going to work I exit at a smaller loss and i'll be right, however now I am losing the potential to be earning a lot of points if I would've just held my trade since it hasn't touched my protective stop. I'm not sure if that made sense. Thank you.
Lately, whenever I enter a trade and if there's a pullback or a test of the ema in the opposite direction, I immediately get out because in my head that's not good follow through, just to watch the market go back to the original direction of my trade
You have to be confident on the swing setup. If the context is good, give it room allowing the MKT to go beyond your entry price because many times it take some bars to take-off. If you can't give it room after a few bad looking bars, as Al says, go to Walmart and come back in 30-60 mins.
I always follow my protective stops but sometimes when I feel a trade isn't going to work I exit at a smaller loss and i'll be right, however now I am losing the potential to be earning a lot of points if I would've just held my trade since it hasn't touched my protective stop.
Yes, sometimes you will exit early and feel relieved when the MKT then turns to where it was your stop-loss but, for swing trading to be profitable, you need the big winners.
What can be done? Sticking to the very best setups and virtually never touching the stop-loss. I found long ago that when I did, yes, sometimes I saved some bucks, but some other times I left on the table many more. A lot more. In the long run, better to have these relatively small losses while getting the big winners. Without them, swing trading simply doesn't work.
Thanks for the feedback I appreciate you. I will start doing that and implementing those better habits.