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On the blog chart I am curious as to why Al does not have a green box above Bar 2. I was thinking that with the 2 big up bars to start the day that we would be AIL. Obviously it would not have triggered as we did not trade above Bar 2, but had we wouldn't this be an AIL situation?
The bulls probably needed one more bar to make the market Always in long. The tail on top of bar 1 and bar 2 lowered the probability. Also, the bulls needed a follow-through bar on bar 3 and instead got a bear bar closing on its low.
Most always in, traders who bought early would exit below bar 3. Also, on the open in general, there is a 50% chance the market will reverse the initial move (in this case, bar 1-2 rally).
I attached an inverse chart of the Emini and notice how strong the bar 3 reversal bar is compared to the opening two bear bars. Sometimes I like to look at inverse charts to make sure I am not biased of the direction.
Hope this helps.
Brad