The support forum is built with (1) General and FAQ forums for common trading queries received from aspiring and experienced traders, and (2) forums for course video topics. How to Trade Price Action and How to Trade Forex Price Action videos are consolidated into common forums.
Brooks Trading Course social media communities
In a Channel, if a Breakout in either direction starts to fail, is there a 70-75% chance of a test of opposite side?
Is my example a 70% probability setup ?
thanks!
Hi w,
I believe what Al's slides are trying to show is that it's lower probability of BO in the direction of the current channel to succeed. If it's a bull CH then it's 30% chance of BO above it to succeed. If bear CH then 30% chance of BO below it to succeed. Success meaning a BO so strong it begins a new market cycle (BO,CH,TR,BO). If your chart shows a bear CH, then as per market cycle, the next stage is for bigger TR to form, so the expected BO is to the upside to grow the TR. In your example it was a bear CH and those usually BO to upside and the market continues growing the TR and that's exactly what happened. Al's slides are showing what to expect if the BO is into the lower probability direction. So if your example did a BO down then can expect it to fail within 5 bars and reverse up, but yours did a BO as was expected.
Hope that helped!
CH
______________________
BPA Telegram Group
