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I saw this potential trade and planned it for an hour. I went to take a shower, and I think everyone else did too.
I don't know where else to post this. I think it's highly relevant to what Brooks teaches about the traders' equation, risk/reward, and probability. And it's hilarious to me.
This trade was today on Sept, 2nd, 2021. USDJPY has been in an ascending triangle tight TR on the daily chart. I was getting ready to buy the test of the bull trendline after seeing a good looking final flag reversal. I was expecting to have a final flag bear breakout and it did. I saw the breakout had 2 legs that was a MM, but the bull reversal bar wasn't as good as I wanted. So I thought maybe it'll have a 3rd leg and form a bull wedge and that the 3rd leg may be a MM or 2 times MM (because the market had previous formed a bull wedge a couple days ago where the 3rd leg was 2 times the MM.) I expected this to be the end of this bear leg in the TR.
You can see it did what I expected, except that I wasn't expecting the trade to not happen or end until tomorrow. The 3rd leg of the bear wedge and the reversal happened in 10 minutes. I guess all I can do is wait to see if the market stays about the 20EMA on the 1hr chart and buy some kind of bull flag for the test to the top of the TR.
Yes sir. That's the sucky part of it. Looks like a lot of people thought the same thing judging by the wick of the reversal bar. 🙂 Don't beat yourself up. Good opportunities come up every day.
