Daily setup swings probability?

I don't think Al has ever claimed that. Here's what he says each day:

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

"Reasonable" means has a positive Trader's Equation. But a reasonable TE can be achieved by having a 60% chance of 1x risk or a 40% chance of 2x risk.

He says the charts present an "Always In perspective." One way you could interpret this is that a trade marked with an arrow means the AI direction is in that direction on that bar. However given that sometimes those arrows mark reversal trades which in the course are typically explained as having a 40% chance of 2x risk and to not change the AI direction, I don't believe that interpretation is Al's intent. Also, when he marks one of those reversal trades, if there's a trend bar in the opposite direction he'll often mark that as well, suggesting the AI direction has not yet changed.

I think a reasonable way to think about Al's daily setups is that the first arrow in the opposite direction of prior arrows is a reversal trade with a 40% chance of 2x risk, and a second arrow in that same direction following a breakout changes the AI direction so that you can target 1x initial risk.

when is the new book release date?

The blue box setups (in the "BTC Daily Setups Archives" -- note Al no longer does blue box in current EOD markings that has the arrows) are intended to be swing setups, i.e. the intention is to hold for 2+ legs, 10+ bars, 2x initial risk (i.e. "2R"),  until an always-in flip against you, or until a credible opposite setup/signal.

Can you exit at 1x initial risk if you only took the blue box setups?  Of course.  Profitable swing trades are almost always profitable scalps as well (the opposite is not necessarily true -- you can have a profitable scalp setup that is an unprofitable swing setup).

Would not be hard to verify, you have the data at your finger tips that you could mine.

Respondido por: w

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when is the new book release date?

Off topic. No date yet, maybe 1-2 years.