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On Friday, December 10th, 2021, in his live trading room, as bar 25 bear bar was forming (and after its close) Al said it was a credible short, double top with 19 saying something like 'good bull leg, but look to the left', giving multiple examples from his encyclopedia.
However, in his blog post, there is no red highlight below 25.
Did he change his analysis in hindsight just because the trade did not turn out well?
Hi Ed,
I guess it is more likely that Al changed his mind at the time, on the fly. He will often say he will change his view as the market moves during the day, and Al has no problem with being wrong - as we all are often.
For the end of day chart he will review the events and reflect what a good consistent trader could have seen and acted upon. Notice the 2 losing shorts at the two higher lows. We cannot win them all. ; )
If you have encyclopedia access, you can check this setup. What I've noticed is AL takes the entry when the BR Ch is tight. If the BR Ch has a Bottom pattern, like the Wedge here, the BL 2nd LG has 3 BL Bars Closing on High, and the BR bar of the DTBRF has a tail, he waits for a good bar CC BRT bar with Close on Low or an L2 setup.
I was not in the room so not sure what AL said exactly, but I'm assuming since this is a 40% setup in general, and because of the points I stated above it was less than 40% and AL doesn't mark trades which has less than 40% PP. Though, in the room, he may discuss them.
