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Hello,
Bar 19 was a 2nd entry (1st entry was bar 15) for a Wedge bottom at MA possible Opening Reversal Up, so I thought that this was the stronger buy signal bar. However, the end of day marked up chart disapprove my thought.
In the end of day chart, 15 was blue box trade which is stronger than 19 just a green highlight trade.
Does anybody know the reason why such is the case? Thanks in advance!
I'm not perfectly confident about my answers, but I'll try to explain what I think, since there are no answers here yet despite the good question.
15: wedge PB. 50% PB. 6 bar bear MC so minor reversal up likely, better to wait for H2.
As the daily setup says, it's a minor wedge, but still could be a good swing. As shown in the chart, good to manage it by getting out below 18.(L2 14-16 or simply L1 17 inside bar. Also there's a BO test and MM down likely)
19 is H2 but I think the bull bar is too small. The reason 19 is not marked with blue rectangle might be as simple as that. Also be careful of the BO test (of 5 low) and a good inside bar 17. Good sell setup and sellers might not flip so easily at 19. Al didn't mark 17 but 18 as the blue rectangle setup. Maybe 17 is weaker since tail below and 15,16 is 2 bulls, but anyway, 18 is also a good sell.
But I think 19H is still a "reasonable" buy, so a pro scale-in trader will probably not lose money (hold and buy above 27)
2-6-15 wedge, 24-27 H2 so consecutive bottoms, 25 is possible FF, yesterday's close below.
Probably at least going back up to the midpoint of 19 H and 27H. (still expect minor reversal up though)
In conclusion, I would not buy 19H since the bear channel down is too tight, and the signal bar is not so strong. It's also right after a good sell signal bar 17, which could make 19 less reliable.
If I did buy 19H, I'd get out below or flip below 20 outside bar, which traps those who bought above 19 or 15 (be careful of possible wedge 6-14-20)
Thank you.
I also thought about 19 being not blueboxed due to its being a doji with small body. However I recalled somewhere Al said 2nd entry doesn’t have to be as strong because being the 2nd entry is already strong so that got me confused.
19 followed strong sell signal bar 18 is what I haven’t thought of. My line of thinking still expecting a possible 2nd signal long so I have yet to grasp why 19 is a strong sell signal.
Thanks again.
