Why isn’t 46 a sell below on 8/30/24?

I Think At that point there's a higher chance that we've seen the low of the day . Wedge, nested wedge, midday reversal, failed BO below yesterday's low , you could even argue bears had 3 legs down and took profit. The strong bull leg took out the most recent LH in one go and limit order bulls can step in trying to buy below bars, the 50% Pb, gaps or above the first bull signal bar, all betting on a second bull leg. 

So basically there's a higher chance the next thing we'll see it's a HL MTR. Those who sold below 46, got out Breakeven 9 bars later 

I agree with Fred.  Perhaps better context and more confluence to assume the rally to 46 would get continuation.  But I would agree that it's a tough buy on the 6/7/24 chart.  Higher probability to wait for a second entry or strong trend bar like followed.  

My 2c (could be wrong)

I'll start by saying, I don't know anything. However, I think the higher time frame wedge bull flag (composed of thursday and friday) completely took precedence over just the 5 minute chart for friday (at that particular spot) because that became the HL on the large wedge bull flag. I remember noticing it at this exact spot, realizing its last day of the week, last day of the month. Also, the day before a holiday weekend, which this year they've made a couple strong moves the friday before a holiday weekend. We've already been in this trading range for a week now and i was beyond confident they were just going to run it straight to the top with that flag.

This probably doesn't awnser your question, but the higher time frames will take over, especially when you have something like that. Could also say it's an hourly second entry long at the bottom of a trading range.

Another thing that made that a buy is the fact that we have 5 previous wedge bottom attempts over the past week. When theres a wedge bottom at the bottom of a trading range, and you get a break below it you're generally not going to get the measured move down. It will turn back up and reclaim the rejection point and rip. Same as a break above a wedge top at the top of a trading range. Probably not going to get the measured move up, right away at least. (when it breaks the range those will be the very first targets.

If you've noticed these wedges each time it reclaims the rejection point it rips. Almost all of them are set up on the same exact level or close, which is where bar 46 is. It's just doing the same thing it's repeated for the last week. That level fails, once it gets reclaimed it rips.

Thanks Chris. I was under the impression that Al’s daily setups were agnostic to HTFs with the exception of prior day H/L and weekly/monthly S/R when explicitly mentioned.

Yah they are. Thats my fault. It went over my head that you were only interested in the price action as it pertains to just that day. Pardon my little interruption.

The things I can see why 21 could be a buy are:

• 50% PB, Test of BO point
• Double Bottom
• Dominant feature of the day was the bull rally, so this effects later PA in a bullish way. 
• Micro DB
• There were some bad buy SBs (bar 9 & 6) in the area where the bear sell off stopped, and bad buy SBs often form support.
• Tails at the bottom of every bear bar and the biggest bottom tail appearing on the smallest bear bar just before the reversal, signalling waning momentum. 

I like these points. And those bull bars were above the MA too. That wasn’t the case with 46

Probably a sell below 47, consecutive bear bars below ema but it never got triggered and bulls took over. Monthly context I felt favoured the bulls too. 

My view is a little simpler, mileage may vary.  The first picture you have a climax after a tight channel, so could just be considered 1 leg on a HTF.  The expectation after climax is to test the beginning of the climax, with several possible outcomes -- MM down, or support at the climax low forming a DB bull flag.  It tested the climax low and then formed a bull bar that triggered.

The 2nd picture you have a broader move, more like a broad bear channel, with a wedge bottom, so the expectation here is a bit different, where you expect 2 legs.  However, after testing the final leg high, you got a decent bear bar b44.  If this is going to be a successful DT bear flag (like the first pic b21), then 44 should have triggered.  It did not.  So once you get to b46 it now looks like a 2 leg pb of the bull leg.