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Hey all,
Can we all agree that the entry on bar 18 yesterday was maybe too aggressive?
The measured move target that he marked isnt even reached yet. Its a waterfall of black bars. A 14 bar micro channel. Zero bullish activity. You could argue climactic ofc but thats really the only argument you could have here. And maybe betting on the bar 18 low of the day? But thats so paper thin right?
Like he said in the course. In a strong trend the market is always forming wedges and theyre not good reasons to enter by themselves.
With such a small albeit good sb, I think he normally always takes the 2nd entry in these situations.
What do you think about this entry?
Hey all,
Can we all agree that the entry on bar 18 yesterday was maybe too aggressive?
The measured move target that he marked isnt even reached yet. Its a waterfall of black bars. A 14 bar micro channel. Zero bullish activity. You could argue climactic ofc but thats really the only argument you could have here. And maybe betting on the bar 18 low of the day? But thats so paper thin right?
Like he said in the course. In a strong trend the market is always forming wedges and theyre not good reasons to enter by themselves.
With such a small albeit good sb, I think he normally always takes the 2nd entry in these situations.
What do you think about this entry?
Good post.
The first point I'd make is that you should probably attach the chart you're talking about, because in a month's time people reading this thread won't understand what you're referring to.
The second point: Yes, IMO you're completely right. Sustained selling, zero buying pressure, first reversal bound to be minor. Plus, sell climax doesn't necessarily mean an immediate reversal and a huge bull trend straightaway. It could go into a TTR for the rest of the day, which is what it did.
Yes, V-reversals can happen, but they're relatively rare in the ES and you cannot assume that's what's going to happen.
That big bull bar was news driven. Had the news not been there, we'd probably have seen another small bull bar or bars, progressively weaker, a lot less dramatic, then bear trend resumption.
Hey Jeffrey,
It seems like you have made good progress that you're thinking about a trade being risky or not. However, if by risky - you mean low probability, then I want to remind you that there are two facets to the trader's equation. One being probability, and the other being risk-reward ratio.
You will see, the bar size is small compared to the other bars around it. There were consecutive parabolic wedges. So, if you assume that the price might go up to test the bottom of the first wedge - the risk reward comes to somewhere around 1:5. So, mathematically even if the bulls had a 20% chance of getting a swing - the trade makes sense mathematically. And, I'll be honest - I wouldn't have estimated an 80% win probability for bears there, it's probably lower than that.
You did make an excellent point about bear microchannel, which is why you probably don't expect bar 18 to be the LOD - 15 bar microchannel, odds are we'll get down again if bulls momentarily take control. But, regardless - 15 bar microchannel is climactic behaviour. More importantly, if you listened to Joseph's analysis recently, he talked about time control as well as price control. That's what climaxes are - price control. The bear bars were big, but of the 18 bars - strong bears bars were just 7 in count. Meaning, the other 11 bars, bulls are and bears weren't too uneven. Too far, too fast would result in exhaustion. These are the reasons to take that long.
However, I also want to say - you would be much better placed to ignore it, at least I did yesterday. Instead, when bulls got such a huge bar - it just gave bears reason to short once more. They suddenly find price testing the average price(EMA) and are happy to sell given the context - strong bear trend that's in microchannel. Analyse from the perspective of both bulls and bears keeping in mind the probabilities - and you'll find yourself making better decisions.
Some nice points you make there, I watch Joseph intensely, so I understand what you mean :).
I get what you're saying about probability and the traders equation but for example look at this equation. There's low risk to short, the sb is small. Not 1:5. More like two times risk till the EMA, so 40% for the bears would do here. Its a wedge, even a double top, bull leg = less strong than the prev bear leg, but still the bears don't have 40% chance here to reach the EMA?
Anyways, I feel like there are plenty of 1:5 counter trend entries in other days he wouldn't mark as a decent enough entry. But maybe I'm wrong. I shall assimilate your arguments into my future analysis of his blogs and return here when I'm confused 😉
Dont you dare question my Joseph fetish. My rough sketch may be the cause of your misconception. But ofc I dont mean to sell below the bull bar. There's a bear bar sb (3 bar reversal) in the middle of that red circle.
Jeffrey, we're neither friends nor did I permit you to take a casual or disrespectful tone with me. I maintain this decorum on this forum and expect the same.
Since, that wasn't the case here - I'd prefer to recuse myself from this discussion and all future discussions where you ask questions here.
Jeffrey, my 2c - could be wrong
Jeffrey, we're neither friends nor did I permit you to take a casual or disrespectful tone with me. I maintain this decorum on this forum and expect the same.
Since, that wasn't the case here - I'd prefer to recuse myself from this discussion and all future discussions where you ask questions here.
It's interesting that you’re taking this tone now, especially considering you deleted your previous post. For anyone following, in that post, you questioned my dedication to Joseph’s teachings, implying I wasn’t paying attention well enough simply because I suggested selling might be a good idea.
You’ve decided to go stiff and formal here, but let’s be clear: disrespect started when you took jabs at my understanding. If you’re too rigid to handle differing opinions without resorting to that, then, by all means, recuse yourself.
End of story.
I have to ask. Who is Joseph?
